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Playoff seeds were still up for grabs on the final day of the regular season. Indiana’s loss to Minnesota robbed fans of the chance to see a mouthwatering matchup between Caitlin Clark and the Fever vs. Angel Reese and the Atlanta Dream.
And with both teams on opposite sides of the bracket, their only chance to meet in the playoffs is if both make it to the WNBA Finals.
Nonetheless, there’s still plenty to be excited about with three rounds of playoff basketball before we crown the 2026 champion.
Where's the value?
When it comes to playoff futures, you must look at each matchup before charting a path forward for each team. For example, although Minnesota is the current favorite, its matchup against New York is by far the toughest in the first round. Keep in mind that New York won the midseason Commissioner’s Cup and went 2-1 in the season series against Minnesota.
Using the net ratings metric, I ran simulations to assess each team's implied probability of winning the championship and compared my model’s odds with DraftKings' odds. Based on the findings below, Minnesota’s championship odds offer the worst value, with an edge of -11.5%.
In comparison, Golden State’s implied probability of 31.1%, or +222 model odds, offer the best value at DraftKings to win the title at +600.
The one issue the Valkyries may face would be a meeting with the Aces in the semifinals. Note that Las Vegas won all three head-to-head meetings during the regular season by an average of 11.3 points.
However, Las Vegas will face a Fever team in the first round that posted a league-best offensive rating of 115.0.
Indiana’s 3-point shooting can be a real catalyst in the series, since Las Vegas ranked only 12th in opponent 3-point percentage (34.9%). In comparison, the Fever offense led the league in that category, shooting 38.6% from beyond the arc.
So if the Valkyries can avoid the Aces, their path to the Finals becomes more manageable, and we could find ourselves with an opportunity to hedge our futures ticket.
Pick: Valkyries to Win Title (+600, bet365)
Mystics vs. Dream
The wildcard in the first round might just be the Washington Mystics, who have the youngest roster in the league with an average age of 23.85 years. Washington shattered its preseason win total of 17.5 games by going 28-16.
The Mystics enter this series on a four-game winning streak, posting an average margin of victory of 16 points. Washington won the season series 2-1 and finished above Atlanta (103.5) defensively with a 103.3
A slower pace of play in the playoffs should suit the Mystics because fewer possessions will help to negate their offensive shortcomings due to variance.
Thus, this #4 vs. #5 matchup could lead to a decisive third game in the series.
Pick: Over 2.5 Games (-105, bet365)
Liberty vs. Lynx
Another series that could go the distance is New York vs. Minnesota. The Liberty won the season series 2-1, and despite not being at their best for much of the season, this roster has too much talent to be a #8 seed.
New York’s sluggish start was due to some lengthy injuries to key players. Yet, we’re getting the same odds (-105) that the series will go to a Game 3 as we are in a #4 vs. #5 matchup between Atlanta and Washington.
Those odds would suggest to me that the current market price is somewhat undervalued. A parlay for both series to go over 2.5 games increases our odds to +281.
Pick: Over 2.5 Games (-105, bet365)
Wings vs. Valkyries
The one series we’ve yet to discuss is the Wings vs. Valkyries. Golden State swept the season series 3-0, winning by an average margin of 12.3 points. The Wings will be without a double-digit scorer in Azzi Fudd (13.1 PPG), who suffered a season-ending injury.
Dallas's biggest issue is that it’s 7.3 points worse than Golden State in defensive efficiency. And while the Valkyries rank only seventh offensively, they’re the most aggressive 3-point shooting team, leading the league with 30.3 attempts and 10.4 makes per game.
As a result, the Wings will likely find themselves playing catch-up against a suffocating defense. Golden State’s priority will be to try and slow down Wings point guard Paige Bueckers.
Given how the Wings struggled offensively in the season series, it’s surprising to see Bueckers as the favorite for points leader. Golden State’s Gabby Williams would be a better option at +375 because she’ll be facing a Dallas team that’s nowhere near as good defensively.
Pick: Gabby Williams Top Scorer (+375, bet365)
