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The Indiana Fever (1-1) and Las Vegas Aces (1-1) meet in Game 3 of the WNBA Playoffs Round 1 tonight. Tipoff is set for 9:00 p.m. ET at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on USA.
The Aces are favored by -4.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 180.5 (-112o / -108u). The Aces are a -192 favorite to win outright, while the Fever are +154 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Fever vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks, and download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Fever vs. Aces Odds, Pick
- Fever vs. Aces Spread: Fever +4.5 (-108), Aces -4.5 (-112)
- Fever vs. Aces Over/Under: 180.5 (-112o / -108u)
- Fever vs. Aces Moneyline: Fever +154, Aces -192
- Fever vs. Aces Best Bet: Over 180.5 (-112)
Fever vs. Aces Preview
The two most exciting words in professional sports: "Game 3." Ok, maybe that's just the most exciting phrase in WNBA first-round playoff matchups; nonetheless, that's exactly what we've got Thursday night with the Las Vegas Aces and the Indiana Fever.
Indiana forced this Game 3 with a 10-point home win in Game 2, led by Caitlin Clark's phenomenal 27-point, 7-rebound, 15-assist game, while Kelsey Mitchell added 26 points on 3/4 shooting from three.
The Aces wasted a Jackie Young masterclass in which she had 31/4/5, but now return home to try to close out the series and advance to the semifinals.
Fever vs. Aces Prediction
So what angle can we take tonight in this win-or-go-home situation for two of the best teams in the league?
My T Shoe Index (TSI) projects Las Vegas -4 with a total of 183.5, so that makes me want to take a look at the Over here. I'd love to back Vegas at home, but my projection is so tight with the market that I'll have to look elsewhere for an edge, which brings me to the total.
Both games so far have gone over this number relatively comfortably, and Indiana is 7-2 to the Over as underdogs and 13-9 to the Over on the road.
These are the league's top two teams in effective field goal percentage (eFG%), and both are middle of the pack in defensive turnover percentage, meaning these offenses should have more quality possessions that don't end in turnovers.
Add that Indiana leads the league in pace, and these two teams are #1 (IND) and #3 (LV) in opponent-adjusted offensive rating, per TSI, and you've got a recipe for an Over.
Best Bet: Over 180.5 (-112, FanDuel)
