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The Indiana Fever (28-16) and Las Vegas Aces (31-13) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 4:00 p.m. EDT at Michelob ULTRA Arena in Paradise, Nev. The game will be broadcast live on ABC.
The Aces are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 182.5 (-109o / -111u). The Aces are a -165 favorite to win outright, while the Fever are +140 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Fever vs. Aces predictions and WNBA picks. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Fever vs. Aces Odds, Pick
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -106 | 182.5 -106o / -114u | +140 |
| Aces Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -114 | 182.5 -106o / -114u | -172 |
- Fever vs. Aces Spread: Aces -3.5 (-115 ), Fever +3.5 (-105)
- Fever vs. Aces Over/Under: 182.5 (-109o / -111u)
- Fever vs. Aces Moneyline: Fever +140, Aces -165
- Fever vs. Aces Best Bet: Aliyah Boston Over 13.5 Points (+100, bet365)
Fever vs. Aces Preview
The No. 6 seed Fever open the playoffs on the road against the defending-champion Aces, who enter on a seven-game winning streak and haven't dropped a home game to a lower seed all season.
Las Vegas is favored by 3.5 points, with the total set at 182.5, and much of the betting market's confidence centers on A'ja Wilson, who's putting up 25.6-25.7 points, 9.4 rebounds, and a league-leading two blocks per game on 52.4% shooting.
Jackie Young adds a strong second scoring option at 18.9 points, giving Vegas a balanced, high-powered attack that averaged 91.5 points a game on 49% shooting this season.
The frontcourt matchup between Wilson and Boston is the game within the game, and it's one Boston has actually won more often than not this season. She's averaged 19.3 points on a blistering 59.5% shooting in matchups against Las Vegas this year, well above her season norms.
Indiana also held this Aces offense under 76 points twice during the regular season, proof that the Fever have a real defensive blueprint against Vegas, even if replicating it in a playoff atmosphere is a taller order.
Fever vs. Aces Prediction
It should be noted that Aliyah Boston left the Fever's regular-season finale with a leg injury and is officially questionable at the time of writing, but the uncertainty has created value.
Setting the injury question aside for a moment, the case for Boston clearing this number is strong. Her production against Las Vegas specifically has been a level above her usual output, and a 13.5-point line looks conservative against a player who's averaged nearly 20 points a game in this exact matchup all season.
Our model's 17.2-point projection aligns more closely with that head-to-head track record than with her broader season average, and the plus-money price reflects real value given that the number hasn't caught up to how well she's played against this specific opponent.
The injury is the one piece that changes everything about this bet, though, and it deserves to be treated as the headline risk rather than a footnote. If Boston is limited in minutes or held to a lighter role coming off a lower-leg issue, even her strong matchup history won't be enough to overcome a shortened workload — this is a bet that depends on her playing something close to a normal game, not just suiting up.
Confirming her final status and any minutes restriction right before tip-off is essential before locking this one in.
Best Bet: Aliyah Boston Over 13.5 Points (+100, bet365)
