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The Washington Mystics (28-16) and Atlanta Dream (30-14) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:00 p.m. EDT at State Farm Arena in Atlanta, Ga. The game will be broadcast live on Amazon Prime Video.
The Dream are favored by -7.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 164.5 (-107o / -114u). The Dream are a -300 favorite to win outright, while the Mystics are +240 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Mystics vs. Dream predictions and WNBA picks. Be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
Mystics vs. Dream Odds, Pick
| Mystics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+7.5 -105 | 164.5 -104o / -118u | +245 |
| Dream Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-7.5 -115 | 164.5 -104o / -118u | -320 |
- Mystics vs. Dream Spread: Dream -7.5 (-108 ), Mystics +7.5 (-111)
- Mystics vs. Dream Over/Under: 164.5 (-107o / -114u)
- Mystics vs. Dream Moneyline: Mystics +240, Dream -300
- Mystics vs. Dream Best Bet: Angel Reese Over 15.5 Points (-110, bet365)
Mystics vs. Dream Preview
The No. 4 seed Dream host the surging No. 5 seed Mystics in a series between two of the league's better defensive teams. Washington ranked second in defensive rating this season, Atlanta third.
Atlanta enters with real momentum, having won five straight and eight of its last nine to close the year, and the Dream are favored by 7.5 points at home with the total sitting at 164.5. Allisha Gray leads Atlanta at 19.0 points per game, Rhyne Howard adds 17.7, and Angel Reese has anchored the interior all season, leading the league in both rebounds per game and double-doubles, and was recently named AP Defensive Player of the Year.
Washington, however, isn't an easy out. The Mystics went 2-1 against Atlanta in the regular season, with both wins coming by five points in low-scoring, defensively tilted games, and they enter the playoffs as one of the league's hottest teams, winning eight of their last 10.
Shakira Austin has been a driving force, averaging 17.0 points per game, though she's also carrying an injury question mark heading into tonight.
Mystics vs. Dream Prediction
Reese's underlying profile supports a big scoring night. Our model's 17.9-point projection sits well above tonight's 15.5 line, and that number reflects her expanded offensive role this season as one of four Atlanta players averaging double-figure scoring, playing alongside a supporting cast that draws enough defensive attention to open up easy looks for her around the rim.
Washington's defense is excellent overall, but it's also relatively undersized and young, and Reese's combination of rebounding gravity and second-chance scoring has been difficult for teams without a true physical answer in the post to contain all season.
With Reese clear of the injury report and expected to play her normal role, the matchup lines up well in her favor. She's the focal point of Atlanta's interior attack against a Washington frontcourt that hasn't had a consistent answer for her size and activity around the basket, and the gap between our projection and the market number reflects that edge.
Best Bet: Angel Reese Over 15.5 Points (-110, bet365)
