The New York Liberty (21-14) and Connecticut Sun (8-24) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 1:00 p.m. EDT at Mohegan Sun Arena in Uncasville, Conn. The game will be broadcast live on FOX5 New York.
The Liberty are favored by -8.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 174.5 (-110o / -110u). The Liberty are a -350 favorite to win outright, while the Sun are +265 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Liberty vs. Sun predictions and WNBA picks.
Liberty vs. Sun Odds, Pick
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8.5 -106 | 174.5 -110o / -110u | -350 |
| Sun Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8.5 -114 | 174.5 -110o / -110u | +265 |
- Liberty vs. Sun Spread: Liberty -8.5 (-106), Sun +8.5 (-114)
- Liberty vs. Sun Over/Under: 174.5 (-110o / -110u)
- Liberty vs. Sun Moneyline: Liberty -350, Sun +265
- Liberty vs. Sun Best Bet: Liberty Team Total Over 91.5 Points
Liberty vs. Sun Preview
There is a massive divide in the WNBA standings at the moment, as the bottom seven teams are trailing by anywhere from six to 13 games for the eighth and final playoff spot.
Thus, with the season dwindling, it's highly unlikely that these bottom teams will find their way back into postseason contention.
For the Sun, their campaign is all but over considering they're 14th in the standings with an 8-24 mark. And for a franchise that knows it'll be relocating to Houston for the start of next season, one can almost forgive everyone involved if their hearts and minds were on something other than the game of basketball.
Connecticut's best stretch of basketball was a 5-3 run from June 22 to July 17. Since then, the Sun have just one win in their last seven games, which includes Thursday's lopsided 104-69 defeat to Atlanta at home.
Although Saturday's matinee against the Liberty has the potential to be a bounce-back spot, I'll explain why Connecticut could still struggle to slow New York down offensively.
Liberty vs. Sun Prediction
If you look at the advanced metrics for defensive efficiency, both teams are only separated by a point, with New York posting a 107.9 rating and Connecticut at 108.7.
However, offensively, New York is 13.3 points ahead of a Connecticut team that ranks dead last in efficiency at 98.6.
Since both teams are in the middle of the pack in terms of tempo, I don't expect either side to try to play at a slower pace.
While the 1 p.m. tip-off is a slight worry, these midday games are 25-19 to the over for bettors.
Moreover, New York has cashed most wins for over bettors (22), and it enters this game on a 7-3 run. What's even more appealing is that its team total is available at 91.5.
New York has cleared this line in nine of its last 10 games, and seven of them came against opponents with a better defensive rating than the Sun.
Connecticut's biggest challenge will be defending the 3-point line, as New York ranks second in attempts at 29.1 per game.
By all accounts, the Sun look like a team that's already waiting for the season to end, and that could prove troublesome, given the gulf of talent between the two teams.
Even if Connecticut puts up a fight, the Liberty should be able to get whatever they want on the offensive end.
Therefore, this is a spot where I could only look to play New York over its team total.
Best Bet: Liberty Team Total Over 91.5 Points
