The New York Liberty (20-13) and Indiana Fever (20-12) meet in the WNBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EDT at Gainbridge Fieldhouse in Indianapolis, Ind. The game will be broadcast live on ESPN.
The Fever are favored by -3.5 on the spread, with the over/under set at 191.5 (-115o / -105u). The Fever are a -162 favorite to win outright, while the Liberty are +136 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Liberty vs. Fever predictions and WNBA picks.
Liberty vs. Fever Odds, Pick
| Liberty Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3.5 -108 | 191.5 -115o / -105u | +136 |
| Fever Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3.5 -112 | 191.5 -115o / -105u | -162 |
- Liberty vs. Fever Spread: Fever -3.5 (-112), Liberty +3.5 (-108)
- Liberty vs. Fever Over/Under: 191.5 (-115o / -105u)
- Liberty vs. Fever Moneyline: Liberty +136, Fever -162
- Liberty vs. Fever Best Bet: Caitlin Clark Under 22.5 Points
Liberty vs. Fever Preview
The Fever host the Liberty tonight in a game the bookmakers are projecting to have plenty of fireworks. Tuesday's matchup will be the fourth time in WNBA history with a total that's over 190 points, and all four will have occurred this month.
Interestingly, Indiana might just be the driving force behind these high totals, considering this will be the third time it's involved in one of these games.
While the sample size is still very small, it's worth noting that the under is off to a 2-1 start.
Although no other team plays at a faster pace than the Fever (82.78 possessions per 40 minutes), the game flow has to be almost perfect for over bettors to cash such a high total.
It wouldn't surprise me if we continue seeing Fever totals in this range, but I think we'll know a lot more about how we should attack them with more data points by the end of the season.
As a result, if this is a spot you're looking to play under the number, I'd recommend pivoting to another angle that still might support a lower-scoring game.
Liberty vs. Fever Prediction
If you're a casual WNBA fan, you'd likely think Caitlin Clark was the best player on the Fever team because she's seemingly involved in every headline.
However, that honor belongs to Kelsey Mitchell, who leads the team with 24.2 points per game. Mitchell is actually shooting 50.4% from the floor as a guard and 43.5% from the 3-point line.
In comparison, Clark's field goal percentage is 44.2% and 35.5% from the perimeter.
But before you say that Clark's shooting percentage is probably suppressed because of her 7.5 3-point attempts per game, Mitchell is right on her tail with an average of 6.7.
One area where Clark can struggle at times is in creating her own shot. Her scoring tends to come off a pick-and-roll action or catch-and-shoot. In comparison, Mitchell's ball-handling ability allows her to beat her opponent off the dribble for a drive, pull-up shot or even a step-back.
In other words, the Fever tend to require more bodies and effort for Clark to get her shot off.
Another area where Clark can be a liability is on the defensive end. She's committing 3.2 fouls per game, which is simply too much for a player who spends much of her time defending farther away from the basket.
Opponents clearly know they can target Clark's lack of mobility defensively by getting her into foul trouble.
Thus, if she's forced to the bench due to foul trouble, she'll have less of an impact and would struggle to clear her points prop of 22.5.
Moreover, if you look at teams like New York that are sixth or higher defensively, Clark has gone over 22.5 points in just three of those 12 games. And if we look at her career mark against New York, she has scored 23 points in just one of seven meetings.
While a high total might point to a big performance from Mitchell, the numbers would suggest that there's less correlation for her teammate Clark.
After shopping around, DraftKings has the best price available with Clark's under trading at -124 odds.
Best Bet: Caitlin Clark Under 22.5 Points (-124, DraftKings)
