Sep 7, 2018; Seattle, WA, USA; The WNBA logo on a ball during the fourth quarter of game one of the WNBA finals between the Seattle Storm and the Washington Mystics at KeyArena. Mandatory Credit: Jennifer Buchanan-USA TODAY Sports
- Sean Koerner outlines his 2019 WNBA Power Ratings and how he uses them to project betting odds.
My WNBA power ratings reflect the current form of each team in order to create a baseline spread/total for each matchup.
These factor in everything possible, including any injury news, recent form, travel, etc. To get a projected spread for any matchup, you simply subtract the away team’s rating from the home team’s, then apply a 2.5-point home court advantage for the home team to get a final line.
(Team A’s Power Rating – Team B’s Power Rating) + Team A’s Home Court Advantage = Projected Spread
I typically look for spreads/totals that are 2.5 or more points off from my projected line(s).
2019 WNBA Betting Power Ratings
One important thing to note about the WNBA is just how much line movement there is and how it impacts my betting strategy.
My goal is to get the best number possible. If the opening number is, say, four points off from my projection, I don’t bet it right away. If the line starts to move toward my number, I quickly try to lock in the opening number if I can still access it elsewhere.
Oftentimes the number can drift further away from my projected line and I’ll simply wait to see how far out it gets until I feel it has peaked, then I bet it.
Be sure to follow my picks on The Action Network app and sign up for alerts. I typically send out my pick as I make my bet.