There is plenty of talk about which team will win the World Cup, but one betting market that’s always interesting is who will be voted the best player at the tournament and awarded the Golden Ball.
You’d think that this automatically goes to a player on the team that wins the whole tournament, and while that was the case with Lionel Messi in 2022, he was the first winner to land the award since Brazil’s Romario in 1984. Only four of the 11 winners since the award was introduced in 1982 have represented the winning team. Of the past seven tournaments, one was a World Cup winner, one was fourth, and the other five were all runners-up.
Leading a weaker team to a runners-up spot in a Cinderella story run, like Diego Forlan in 2010 and Luka Modric in 2018, is one way to lock up the award.
Realistically, we need to be looking at midfielders or attackers. No defender has ever won the award, and Oliver Kahn, back in 2002, is the only goalkeeper to ever win the award.
Five winners (Paolo Rossi, Salvatore Schillaci, Romario, Ronaldo, Diego Forlan) have been out-and-out goalscorers, while five (Lionel Messi twice, Diego Maradona, Zinedine Zidane and Luka Modric) have been more creative players.
I’m going to avoid picking the obvious names — Lamine Yamal, Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe — and look to find players who can dictate the tempo of teams that'll go deep in the tournament and act as maestros within that team.
World Cup Golden Ball Long-Shot Picks
Pedri +2000
After being named Young Player of the Tournament at Euro 2020, we’ve seen Pedri flourish into one of Spain’s key players. The Barcelona star is still only 20, and while Lamine Yamal will get a lot of attention for his country, it’s Pedri who acts as the team metronome and keeps the ball ticking over.
The Spanish midfield three are incredible at maintaining possession, which will be key in the heat of the 2026 World Cup. With Pedri’s ability going forward, he’ll be key to the transition into attack. He’s had 11 assists for Barcelona and has improved as a creator, something that makes him a strong play here.
Joao Neves +6600
On paper, Portugal have the best midfield in this competition, and any of them are worth consideration for the Golden Ball. However, you’re getting big odds on 21-year-old Joao Neves when Bruno Fernandes (+2000) and Vitinha (+2500) are available at far shorter odds. So, why not take the guy who’ll win you more?
In four World Cup qualification games for Portugal, he scored three times, underlining his importance to the team. With seven goals and four assists for PSG this campaign, he’s a player who can add attacking threat while also dictating play and doing his defensive work too. He’s the complete midfielder.
James Rodriguez +10000
The Colombians are one of my long-shot picks to go deep into the tournament, and James Rodriguez will be key to that. Luis Suarez is the goalscorer and Luis Diaz is the speedy attacking threat, but it's Rodriquez who gets them playing and creates.
In Copa America, he scored a goal and set up six more in six games for his country. He is familiar with playing in the USA, having recently joined MLS side Minnesota United. Then you have the extra narrative angle that could improve his chances. Twelve years after bursting onto the scene at the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, there’d be a groundswell of support for James if he’s able to roll back the years and lead Colombia deep into the competition.
Frenkie de Jong +10000
The Dutch are the eighth favorites to win the competition and one of my outsider picks, yet their best player is +10000. Frankie de Jong isn’t going to chip in with lots of goals and assists, although he did register three assists in seven qualifying games. But without him in the middle of the pitch, this Dutch team doesn’t have a hope of going deep.
De Jong’s best attribute is his passing, and his ability to link defense and attack is what makes him such a great value proposition here. This is his team, and it's not hard to imagine him playing and being praised, like Luka Modric was when he took his Croatia team to the World Cup final in 2018. The 29-year-old will dictate play, create opportunities, and everything will run through him — you’re getting a huge price on him winning the Golden Ball.
