After a few short weeks off, we are back for the FedExCup Fall. This part of the season is an afterthought for many golf fans, but it carries real weight for the golfers who didn't finish in the top 50 of the FedExCup standings last season.
Winners of these events get the same treatment as any other win during the year — a two-year exemption, 500 FedExCup points, and spots into some of the biggest events in 2027. More importantly, golfers can lock in their status for next year by playing well over the next couple of months.
I try to be as transparent as possible when it comes to my track record in every sport. Last golf season was my worst ever and my first non-profitable season in the last five years. I did manage to turn a small profit after implementing simulations into my model, so I'm hoping we can carry some of that momentum into the FedExCup Fall.
Let's take a look at my Biltmore Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove. Make sure to download the Action Network App for more picks and analysis!
Biltmore Championship Preview
We have a new course and a new tournament on the PGA TOUR this week. The Biltmore Championship in Asheville, North Carolina will be held at The Cliffs at Walnut Cove.
Unlike most Carolina courses we see on the PGA TOUR, this one sits in the Blue Ridge Mountains, 2,200 feet above sea level. This is mountain golf at its finest.
The course is a Par 71 that measures 7,249 yards. The length isn't daunting, especially when you account for the altitude (the ball will travel a bit farther this week). We don't know exactly how the course will play, but it was part of a 3-course rotation for a Korn Ferry Tour event from 2005-2007. It was widely regarded as the toughest course of the three.
The fairways here are generous (35-45 yards wide), but they narrow as you get closer to the hole. The superintendent said that they have grown the rough up to 6" this week, so there should be a big penalty for missing the fairway. The greens here are large and feature a mix of bentgrass and Poa annua.
We don't have any course fit data to work with this week, so I'm leaning on good driving, good iron play, and good recent form.
Biltmore Championship Predictions, Picks
These fall events are fun to bet on because we don't have to worry about Scottie Scheffler running away from the field. It's always tricky betting on events when he's in the field. Jackson Koivun is the overwhelming favorite this week, but I'm not sure he deserves to be +1400 in a full field, at least not yet.
I ran 20,000 simulations in my model this week. Here are the results:
Benjamin James To Win +2800 (BetMGM) / Top 10 +333 (bet365)
Benjamin James hasn't gotten the same hype as Jackson Koivun, but it's hard to have a better career than he did in college.
He was #1 in the PGA Tour University rankings in his senior year at the University of Virginia. During his time there, he basically won everything you could win.
He’s just getting his career started on the actual PGA TOUR, and I expect him to make some noise this fall. In eight events last season, he made seven cuts and posted two top-5 finishes. The underlying statistics look solid, and I like betting on talent in these weak fields.
Blades Brown To Win +4000 (FanDuel) / Top 10 +475 (bet365)
Blades Brown turned pro in 2024, but he's still only 19 years old. For reference, Koivun is 21 years old, and James is 23.
Brown is significantly younger than the two best up-and-comers on TOUR. His future seems extremely bright. He posted two top-10 finishes on the PGA TOUR last season, and his underlying statistics look great.
Over the last six months, he’s 23rd in this field in Strokes Gained: Off-the-Tee and 1st in Strokes Gained: Approach.
Jackson Suber To Win +4500 (bet365) / Top 10 +500 (FanDuel)
Jackson Suber is another up-and-comer on my betting card, although he's not nearly as young as some of the others. He's 26 years old and didn't make his way onto the PGA TOUR until 2024.
He played great last season and found himself in contention several times. In his last 10 events, he has three top-6 finishes.
Suber ranks 1st in the field in my Expected Hole Performance metric, which looks at scoring on the hole yardage lengths at this specific course.
Ben Kohles Top 10 +600 (FanDuel) / Top 20 +270 (FanDuel)
Ben Kohles has been on an absolute tear over the last six months. He's posted top-30 finishes in 11 of his last 12 events and even picked up a win during that stretch.
We are getting terrific odds on a golfer who might have better incoming form than anyone in the field. We don't know exactly how this course is going to play, but Kohles is 2nd in this field in both Good Drive Percentage and Strokes Gained: Approach.
Hitting fairways and greens is a great skill for any golf course.
Christiaan Bezuidenhout Top 20 +230 (FanDuel)
C-Bez is still searching for his first win on the PGA TOUR. He's often labeled as a golfer with limited upside, but I think that's unfair if you zoom out on his career. He has 10 wins worldwide, including three wins on the DP World Tour.
I'm not making a case for him to win this week, but I want everyone to know he does have more upside than most believe. He tends to play his best on shorter courses where Driving Distance isn't a prerequisite for success.
Bezuidenhout is one of the best iron players + putters in the field this week.
Lee Hodges Top 20 +340 (FanDuel)
Lee Hodges is not the most consistent golfer on TOUR, but he posts a lot of high-end finishes. When it comes to outrights or placement bets, we have to realize that these are binary bets — either they win, or they don't.
There's no bonus if you top 20 bet finishes T25. It's the same as if that golfer finishes dead last. I point this out because it's perfectly fine to embrace the volatility of golfers.
Hodges is a good iron player and a streaky putter. He has two top-20 finishes in his last five events.
Good luck this week!
