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Nick Giffen's Picks
Today
M.Momcilovic u17.5 Pts-120
ISU
@
BAY
1.2u
01/08 1:00 AM
Milan Momcilovic under 17.5 pts (-120 B365, -125 MGM, -128 FD/CZR)
MOM has been shooting lights out this year, making an insane 56.3% of his three pointers and 56.1% of his two pointers, both of which would be career highs by a ton (39.6% and 48.8% respectively as best in a season).
His splits have also been heavily skewed toward shooting better at home (60.3% from 3, 60.6% from 2) vs. neutral/road (48.6% from 3, 50% from 2).
That may be why MOM has 0.69 points per minute at home vs. 0.58 in neutral/road games.
Well he's on the road here against Baylor who force teams to shoot from inside (only 32.9% of shots faced are from 3 compared to 39.8 nat'l avg...21st lowest), which MOM doesn't do as much (nearly a 2-1 ratio of shooting from 3 than 2). MOM also tends to shoot a bit less against top-100 location adjusted teams, so I expect his volume to be down a bit, especially from outside.
Add in the likely shooting% regression, and I'm projecting just 15.5 points for MOM.
Making this my first full unit prop of the season.
76
Pending
Lowest Scoring Team (Regular Season): NY Jets+900
1u
3rd lowest Expected Score last year
4th largest O-line downgrade (-$30m AAV per 4for4)
Jets opposing D's spent most $ of all 32 schedules
Fields/Tyrod not upgrades/likely downgrades & will run more w/Fields eating clock
5th unluckiest set of opponents from last year (opponents regression to better results)
Tankapalooza
51
GB +1-115
GB
@
CHI
0.58u
01/11 1:00 AM
Luck Rankings D grade
41
Under 52.5-110
BUF
@
JAC
0.36u
01/11 6:00 PM
Luck Under
99
JAC +1.5-110
BUF
@JAC
0.36u
01/11 6:00 PM
55
BUF u26.5-104
BUF
@JAC
0.34u
01/11 6:00 PM
69
HOU -2.5-128
HOU
@
PIT
1u
01/13 1:15 AM
Just betting on the better team
99
Futures
| Past Performance | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| Yesterday | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.28u |
| Last 7 Days | 5-12-0 | 29% | 0.70u |
| Last 30 Days | 29-75-1 | 28% | -13.56u |
| All Time | 1271-2527-22 | 33% | 283.29u |
| Top Leagues | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| NFL | 523-825-11 | 38% | 106.06u |
| NCAAB | 425-353-8 | 54% | 103.73u |
| NASCAR | 254-1195-2 | 18% | 52.62u |
| NHL | 3-1-0 | 75% | 3.57u |
| World Cup | 13-26-0 | 33% | 1.18u |
| FORMULA_ONE | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| NASCAR_XFINITY | 0-1-0 | 0% | -0.50u |
| Women's World Cup | 1-4-0 | 20% | -0.95u |
| MLB | 2-4-0 | 33% | -1.71u |
| European Championship | 17-49-1 | 25% | -3.47u |
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Betting Highlights
Favorite Bet of All-Time
I bet on my favorite driver Kyle Kirkwood at 20-1 to win the Long Beach Grand Prix. I went to the race and watched him win it in person for his first career IndyCar win. It was the first time I watched him race an IndyCar in person, so I'm officially his good luck charm.
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