NFL Picks Week 7: Bet or Wait Using Our Luck Rankings Model
Photo by Nick Cammett/Getty Images. Pictured: Deshaun Watson.
Our Action Network NFL Luck Rankings can be used to bet on unlucky teams that meet one of two criteria:
- At least 24 places lower than their opponent in the Luck Rankings.
- At least 50% lower Luck% in the Luck Rankings.
Overall, these teams are 103-59-6 (63.1%) since the start of the 2018 season against the closing spread, which is how we grade them for consistency.
In Week 6, there were no Luck Rankings matchups, which kept the 2023 ATS record of unlucky teams meeting at least one threshold at 7-5-2. My personal record on luck-based sides, which you can see in the Action App, remains at 6-3-1 for the season.
For Luck Totals, the threshold is:
- A differential above 10 or below -10.
Both of last week's luck totals were winners — moving them to 3-3 on the year — and since I took them both, that moves me to 3-1 for luck totals this season.
Our PRO Report and PRO Projections have helped us consistently get closing line value this year, so we'll keep up with the process as we dive into pass/wait/play for luck games in Week 7.
NFL Luck Rankings Week 7 Games
This number has bounced around quite a bit, with the Browns favored anywhere from -2 and -3, and some shops even hitting -1.5 at one point.
The big question is whether Deshaun Watson gets the start or not. He did not participate in practice on Wednesday, and he's not planning on playing until he's fully ready, so early indications aren't great for his participation on Sunday.
One sign that we may want to bet this now, however, is the fact that 80% of tickets and 84% of money are coming in on Cleveland and that the spread hit -3 at one point.
That said, I'm inclined to wait this out for clarity on Watson.
Verdict: Wait.
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