These are the two biggest wild cards in boxing. Rolly Romero defends his WBA Welterweight Championship against Teofimo Lopez starting at approximately 11:00 p.m. ET.
You have two of the most inconsistent, uber-talented, maddening, champion-level boxers in the sport, both of whom present a wide range of outcomes.
I'll explain why, but first, let's get into my Rolly Romero vs. Teofimo Lopez boxing picks and predictions for Saturday, August 22.
Rolly Romero vs Teofimo Lopez Prediction
Rolly Romero vs Teofimo Lopez Odds, Preview
- Moneyline: Romero (+240), Teofimo (-290)
- Total Rounds: OU 11.5 Rounds (-410o / +280u)
Teofimo Lopez Betting Preview
Lopez (22-2, 13 KO) hasn't looked impressive in over three years.
I'd argue that he hasn't been the same guy with Pound-For-Pound glimpses since he unexpectedly lost against George Kambosos in late 2021, over a year following his upset win against Vasiliy Lomachenko.
Lopez was a lightweight then. He went on his run at super lightweight after, which was underwhelming in totality. The fights were as follows, via his BoxRec profile.
- Loss vs. Shakur Stevenson — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Arnold Barboza Jr. — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Steve Claggett — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Jamaine Ortiz — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Josh Taylor — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Sandor Martin — Split Decision
- Win vs. Pedro Campa — TKO
Lopez hasn't knocked anyone out — or down — since his debut at 140 pounds against Pedro Campa four years ago. Since then, he squeaked by Sandor Martin, asking, "Do I still got it?" while getting dropped by the crafty, non-power-punching contender.
His best win at 140, by far, was against Josh Taylor, who was in the early stages of a steep decline that led him to a recent retirement, and one fight removed from a gift over Jack Catterall in one of the decade's worst high-profile robberies.
Then Lopez hardly outpointed Jamaine Ortiz, who didn't want to throw punches, but found some success when he did. Then he cruised over a way overmatched Steve Claggett, and cruised again against a hesitant Arnold Barboza Jr. before losing every second of his fight with Shakur Stevenson earlier this year.
But because he's a big name, he loses his title at 140 pounds and immediately walks into a title shot at 147 despite never competing at welterweight before.
And yet, he's a 3-to-1 favorite and could win the title because this is Romero's first title defense since winning the title last year.
Rolly Romero Betting Preview
Romero (17-2, 13 KO) is not perfect either.
But he is coming off his best career performance, outboxing Ryan Garcia and making him look like a novice in their bout last May.
Layoffs in boxing matter, though and we don't know how Romero will respond after 15 months away from the ring.
Leading up to that bout, he was a massive underdog. Garcia was a favorite in the -1,000 range by opening bell.
- Win vs. Ryan Garcia — Unanimous Decision
- Win vs. Manuel Jaimes — Unanimous Decision
- Loss vs. Isaac Cruz — TKO
- Win vs. Ismael Barroso — TKO
- Loss vs. Gervonta Davis — TKO
Romero was a hotshot prospect quickly turned contender and was fed to Gervonta Davis just 14 fights into his pro career in 2022, accounting well prior to being knocked out in the sixth.
Since then, a fellow former lightweight, he moved to 140 and defeated Ismael Barroso in one of the worst-officiated fights of the decade. He then was beaten by Isaac Cruz fairly easily before cruising against non-heralded Manuel Jaimes.
In totality, I firmly believe Lopez is more talented, but I also don't trust him to show up because he mostly hasn't in a half-decade, save for some glimpses.
Romero has had worse lows, but has power that has actually carried over better to 140, having at least dropped someone better than the aforementioned Campa in the weight class (Garcia and Barroso).
Rolly Romero vs Teofimo Lopez Picks, Best Bets
So who shows up? Who the hell knows. But purely betting-wise, the wrong guy might be favored, and if he isn't, the number is bad regardless.
This should be closer to 50-50, and I would probably have Romero favored.
Romero also has power beyond 135, whereas Lopez hasn't demonstrated that he does, even if he is a better pure boxer.
The bet I mainly want is Romero on the moneyline at a quarter or one-third of a unit because of the variables in this bout.
I also think Lopez, by decision, is worth it for two big reasons.
- One, he is always capable of putting it all together — as he seemed to against Taylor, albeit off a 16-month layoff — and
- He has a deal with DAZN. Romero doesn't.
Romero already stunned the powers that be against Garcia, ruining plans for Garcia's rematch with Devin Haney, so in a close fight, I'd be worried about backing Romero, the rare champion underdog facing an opponent off a loss who is signed to the network they're fighting on.
But for me, I'll only bet the Lopez decisions via split or majority decision, because I don't think any method of victory here should be -135, which he is by decision.
Pick: Rolly Romero moneyline (+230, DraftKings) — .25 Units
Longshot Hedges
- Teofimo Lopez by split decision
- Teofimo Lopez by unanimous decision
