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Oscar Best Production Predictions, Odds: Favored Dune Should Beat Out Nightmare Alley, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees

Oscar Best Production Predictions, Odds: Favored Dune Should Beat Out Nightmare Alley, Plus Picks For All 2022 Nominees article feature image
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Tim P. Whitby/Getty Images for Warner Bros. Pictured: A premiere of Dune

  • Dune is a strong favorite to win the Oscar for Best Production Design tonight.
  • Nightmare Alley might be a live underdog, but the favorite is likely to prevail.
  • Our experts debate the category and make their predictions below.

Updated Best Production Design Nominees & Odds

Odds via DraftKings and as of March 26

Nominee Odds Implied Probability
Dune -300 75%
Nightmare Alley +250 28.57%
West Side Story +1200 7.69%
The Power of the Dog +1600 5.88%
The Tragedy of Macbeth +2000 4.76%

Best Production Design Predictions

Collin Whitchurch: The ADG breaks its top prize into four categories: Period, Fantasy, Contemporary and Animated. (It was only three until the latter category was added in 2017.)

The last time the Academy went with a film that was not awarded in any of those four categories was in 2012, when Lincoln beat Anna Karenina, Life of Pi, Skyfall and BAFTA choice Les Miserables.

The Period category, along with the BAFTAs, actually has the best track record overall. But the ADG’s Period winner this year was Licorice Pizza, which wasn’t nominated. Instead, the Fantasy category aligns with the BAFTAs in honoring Dune, so it’s a somewhat obvious choice.

Don’t discredit Nightmare Alley, however. The Academy loves Guillermo del Toro in this category, giving his film — not him specifically, as he’s not the production designer — the prize in both 2017 for The Shape of Water and 2006 for Pan’s Labyrinth.

However, given Dune’s likelihood of dominating the technical categories, the +250 number isn’t tasty enough for my liking. If you could find Nightmare Alley at +400 or better, maybe dabble, but otherwise ride with Dune to -400.

Pick: Dune -360

More 2022 Oscar Predictions

  • A Guide To Betting Every Category: Senior editor Collin Whitchurch breaks down his take on every category, including which are worth betting vs. passing.
  • Gold Derby Experts vs. the Odds: Senior betting analyst Chris Raybon compares predictions by Gold Derby’s experts and editors to the odds in order to identify potential values.
  • 5 More Best Bets: Senior betting analyst Collin Wilson reveals his picks for both supporting actor awards, plus Best Picture and Best Adapted Screenplay.

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