The board is officially set for the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards, and prediction markets are live across every major category. Broadcasting live from the Peacock Theater in Los Angeles on Monday, September 14 at 8:00 p.m. ET on NBC and Peacock, the television industry's biggest night offers plenty of opportunities to find value on the board.
While some perennial darlings are priced as heavy favorites, this year's Emmy race also features an influx of acclaimed freshman series looking to upset the old guard. If you are looking to take a few low-risk flyers, exploit pricing inefficiencies, or find the best cashout angles, you can use our Kalshi promo code to make your trades.
Let's get into my 2026 Emmys predictions and picks for the 13 main series and acting categories.
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Emmys Predictions, Picks, Odds
Comedy Series
Widow's Bay (69 cents, 1 unit)
- Widow's Bay (69 cents)
- Hacks (24 cents)
- Abbott Elementary (1 cent)
- The Bear (1 cent)
- Margo's Got Money Troubles (1 cent)
- Nobody Wants This (1 cent)
- Only Murders in the Building (1 cent)
- Shrinking (1 cent)
The market originally expected a glorious farewell for perennial Emmy darling Hacks, but I am not convinced that will be the case, and the market finally agrees.
When nominations were first announced, Hacks opened as a 54-cent favorite while Widow’s Bay sat at 41 cents, with the rest of the field priced below 5 cents. Since then, we have seen that line flip. Widow’s Bay has climbed to a 69-cent favorite, while Hacks has tumbled down to 24 cents.
I suspect we are about to see an "out with the old, in with the new" scenario take shape. It makes sense to reward the newcomer here. Hacks has been nominated for Outstanding Comedy in every season it has aired, but it has only won the top prize once, and that lone victory was considered a pretty big upset over The Bear at the time.
I picked Hacks that year fully expecting to lose, but the Academy finally got it right. However, I don't believe voters are dying to hand Hacks another series trophy just because it's ending.
It often feels like Hacks wins all the time because Jean Smart has taken home four Best Actress awards, but its actual track record in the series category is much more mortal.
Instead, I think the Academy is going to shine a bright light on a brand-new series that took the world by storm in its first season, Widow's Bay.
Widow's Bay is fresh, unique, and wildly popular. Its inception is a fantastic feel-good story, headlined by a prominent Parks and Recreation writer finally getting her time to shine and hitting an absolute home run.
Most importantly, it's just really good television. It does walk a very fine line between horror and comedy, which is where things get slightly complicated. In traditional sitcoms, the punchline is the entire point. In Widow’s Bay, the primary goal is to give you thrills and chills, and the laughs are a welcome byproduct along the way.
While there is no real precedent for a horror show winning this category, we live in an era where heavy, serialized shows like The Bear routinely beat out pure sitcoms like Abbott Elementary. Being the funniest show on the ballot isn't the only thing that matters anymore, and in some cases, it doesn't matter at all.
I don’t expect to hear the same category fraud allegations that plagued The Bear, either. Comedy might not be the central focus of Widow's Bay, but every episode is littered with plenty of comedic beats to appease the skeptics. It is a brilliant show, and I think it is going to win.
Pick: Widow's Bay (69 cents, 1 unit)
Drama Series
Pluribus (5 cents, 0.2 units)
- The Pitt (91 cents)
- Pluribus (5 cents)
- Slow Horses (1 cent)
- A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms (1 cent)
- The Diplomat (1 cent)
- The Gilded Age (1 cent)
- Paradise (1 cent)
The Pitt is currently listed as a huge 91-cent favorite. It won last year, and it is probably going to win again. However, might I remind you that The Pitt was not the betting favorite heading into last year's ceremony; Severance was.
While there is no definitive reason to believe that The Pitt won't reclaim its crown, I think the market's pendulum has swung entirely too far in its direction. This is a pretty basic medical procedural. It was a great feel-good story last year with Noah Wyle triumphantly returning to a medical role years after ER, and it is undeniably flawless in its execution, but it feels like a rather boring choice for a back-to-back winner.
I think the best shot at an upset in this category—and possibly a great cashout opportunity—is the second option on the board, Pluribus, at 5 cents.
The reason you might get a chance to sell your position at a profit before the final award gets announced is because Pluribus is one of the most technically sound shows on the ballot. I expect it to pick up a few early wins in technical categories, and potentially writing or directing for Vince Gilligan. At the very least, Rhea Seehorn is a heavy 77-cent favorite to win Best Actress.
If Pluribus racks up some early technical wins and Seehorn takes home the Lead Actress trophy, backers of The Pitt might get nervous and start trimming their positions. That could create a beautiful, positive-ROI cashout window for anyone holding a 5-cent Pluribus ticket.
My main knock on Pluribus is that it aired all the way back in early November, whereas The Pitt ran through April, meaning voter memory could be a hurdle. Still, at this heavily lopsided price, taking a small nibble on the new kid on the block is worth a shot.
Vince Gilligan took a massive swing here, creating something bespoke, weird, and incredibly smart. It deserves far more respect than the market is currently giving it.
Who Will Probably Win: The Pitt
Who Should Win: Slow Horses or A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms
Longshot Sprinkle: Pluribus (5 cents, 0.2 units)
Limited/Anthology Series
Beef (10 cents, 0.5 units)
- DTF St. Louis (90 cents)
- Beef (10 cents)
- Love Story (4 cents)
- All Her Fault (1 cent)
- The Beast In Me (1 cent)
DTF St. Louis is the favorite here at 90 cents, while Beef sits at 10 cents, and I don't really understand this pricing.
Critics and audience reception for DTF St. Louis felt pretty middling throughout its run. Even the people who liked it—myself included—were somewhat hesitant to recommend it without a handful of caveats.
The series is flawed and fairly predictable, and despite featuring a lights-out supporting performance from David Harbour, I am not convinced it deserves to be a heavy favorite.
On the flip side, the first season of Beef practically ran the table in the Limited Series categories, taking home the top prize alongside acting wins for Steven Yeun and Ali Wong.
While Season 2 was admittedly a slight step backward from its masterful debut, it was still a really solid season of television laced with great performances and poignant social commentary.
I would be remiss if I didn’t briefly mention how appalled I am that Death By Lightning was entirely snubbed from this category. I had it ranked as one of the top three shows eligible this year, and Nick Offerman being nominated for Supporting Actor serves as a constant, frustrating reminder of what could have been.
Instead, the Academy nominated a group of perfectly average shows in All Her Fault, Love Story, and The Beast In Me, all of which are listed below 5 cents and have virtually no chance of winning.
Side tangents aside, given the options actually on the board, I think this should be closer to a neck-and-neck coin flip between DTF St. Louis and Beef. I give the edge to Beef due to the franchise's short but illustrious track record with Emmy voters, likely making it the better pick at its current price.
Pick: Beef (10 cents, 0.5 units)
Lead Actress – Comedy
Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Troubles (2 cents, 0.2 units)
- Jean Smart, Hacks (91 cents)
- Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback (7 cents)
- Ayo Edebiri, The Bear (2 cents)
- Elle Fanning, Margo's Got Money Trobules (2 cents)
- Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary (2 cents)
I don't see a ton of value in this market, but I will make a tiny sprinkle just to have a horse in the race. Jean Smart has won Best Actress for all four seasons of Hacks, and she is rightfully priced as a heavy 90-cent favorite to make it a clean five-for-five.
There is no reason to believe she won't pull it off. Smart is the best performer in this field, Deborah Vance is a first-ballot Hall of Fame television character, and this might actually be her second-strongest season performance of the show's entire run. She deserves every single trophy she has won for this role, and it would be well-deserved again if she won here.
However, since this market is so wildly skewed and voter fatigue is a very real phenomenon at subjective award shows, why not throw a dart? I'm rolling the dice on Elle Fanning for Margo's Got Money Troubles at 3 cents.
Margo's Got Money Troubles is a highly acclaimed freshman series that racked up plenty of nominations, making it a bit of a wild card since we aren't entirely sure how it will fare with the Academy at the actual ceremony.
Fanning showcases incredible range in the role. She is deeply funny, emotional, and resilient as a mother fighting for custody of her child while hustling to make ends meet and navigating her mother's new romantic relationship. Her character also taps into a darker, seductive side—a gear that Jean Smart rarely has to shift into on Hacks.
Nothing in this life is guaranteed, and I am honestly surprised voters let Smart take four straight to begin with. At 3 cents, Fanning is a fun, low-risk flyer.
Who Will Probably Win: Jean Smart
Who Should Win: Jean Smart
Longshot Sprinkle: Elle Fanning (2 cents, 0.2 units)
Supporting Actress – Comedy
Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (18 cents, 0.5 units)
- Kate O'Flynn, Widow's Bay (75 cents)
- Hannah Einbinder, Hacks (18 cents)
- Michelle Pfeiffer, Margo's Got Money Troubles (3 cents)
- Janelle James, Abbott Elementary (2 cents)
- Dale Dickey, Widow's Bay (2 cents)
- Jessica Williams, Shrinking (2 cents)
While I am ultimately fading Hacks in the main series category and believe Jean Smart's price tag is a bit inflated, I think Hannah Einbinder is worth a shot here at 18 cents.
Einbinder has been nominated for all five seasons of Hacks, finally taking home her first win last year for Season 4.
There is no Hacks without her. The relationship between Ava and Deborah is the entire backbone of the series, and while the show has received massive critical acclaim—mostly manifesting in Jean Smart's trophy cabinet—Einbinder has consistently been a bit overlooked.
The showrunners seemed to make a concerted effort to give Ava incredibly funny and deeply dramatic moments in this final season, which should make a great Emmy highlight reel.
The Academy has consistently shown how much they adore the actresses on this show. Smart and Einbinder are proven commodities who both won their respective acting categories last year. I expect a similar script to play out this year: both women take home acting trophies, but Widow's Bay ultimately sneaks in to win Outstanding Comedy.
This is nothing against Kate O'Flynn, who is wonderful in Widow's Bay and is currently favored at 75 cents. But O'Flynn is a newcomer with no Emmy precedent, and my biggest knock against her is a technical one.
She is the anchor of two of the show's best episodes, but one of those huge standout performances comes in Episode 8, which aired after the May 7 Emmy eligibility deadline.
Technically, only the first seven episodes of Widow's Bay are up for consideration. Will the Academy strictly abide by that rule? Probably not. I'm sure most voters watched the whole season and won't bother segmenting it in their minds.
But, with O'Flynn sitting at 67 cents and Einbinder as a proven winner with a strong final-season arc, this pricing feels wrong. It should probably be much closer to a coin flip, maybe even slightly tilted toward Einbinder.
Pick: Hannah Einbinder (18 cents, 0.5 units)
Lead Actor – Comedy
Matthew Rhys, Widow's Bay (95 cents, Pass)
- Matthew Rhys, Widow's Bay (95 cents)
- Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building (3 cents)
- Jason Segel, Shrinking (3 cents)
- Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Wonder Man (2 cents)
- Steve Carrell, Rooster (2 cents)
I am not even going to bother throwing a dart at this one. It is a pass for me. Matthew Rhys is a colossal 94-cent favorite for his work in Widow's Bay, and they might as well go ahead and put his name on the envelope right now.
There are simply no real contenders in this field that can go toe-to-toe with what Rhys accomplished in Season 1. He brings so many complex layers to the character—deeply scared, worried, and sad, all while maintaining a strong, stoic face for his son and the town he governs.
It is a phenomenal comedic performance that never resorts to being corny or overtly jokey. The show walks a razor-thin wire between horror and comedy, and Rhys is the key that unlocks the entire tone.
While some of his best work happens in the post-deadline finale, he did more than enough in the first seven eligible episodes to secure this award.
Martin Short is sitting in second place at 6 cents, and while I personally adore Only Murders in the Building, I have never viewed him as a legitimate threat to actually win here.
As a long-time comic book fan, nothing would thrill me more than Yahya Abdul-Mateen II pulling off a 2-cent upset for Wonder Man, but the show missing out on a main comedy series nomination makes me think he doesn't have much of a chance.
Anybody other than Rhys winning would be shocking to me, and I cannot realistically map out a path to victory for any of the longshots.
Who Will Probably Win: Matthew Rhys
Who Should Win: Matthew Rhys
Pick: Pass
Supporting Actor – Comedy
Stephen Root, Widow's Bay (42 cents, 0.8 units)
Nick Offerman, Margo's Got Money Troubles (4 cents, 0.2 units)
- Harrison Ford, Shrinking (44 cents)
- Stephen Root, Widow's Bay (42 cents)
- Paul W. Downs, Hacks (5 cents)
- Nick Offerman, Margo's Got Money Troubles (4 cents)
- Colman Domingo, The Four Seasons (3 cents)
- Michael Urie, Shrinking (1 cent)
- Tyler James Williams, Abbott Elementary (1 cent)
I have been shouting from the rooftops for years about how ridiculous it is that Harrison Ford hasn't won an Emmy for Shrinking. He wasn't even nominated for Season 1. And while the betting market seems to think this is finally his time, pricing him as the favorite at 44 cents, I am simply not buying it.
The Academy has historically shown very little love for Shrinking. Neither Jason Segel nor Ford have ever won, and the show has never captured the top comedy prize.
While they undeniably owe Ford a trophy for this performance—especially with this likely being his final season—I think that ship might have already sailed.
Instead, I am looking right at the newcomer, Stephen Root, for his work in Widow's Bay at 42 cents.
Root's performance is memorable, zany, and absolutely crucial to the show's success. He perfectly embodies the strange, haunted identity of the island. When you watch his character, you totally believe he has spent his entire life seeing terrifying things in this bizarre town.
Unlike his co-star Kate O'Flynn, Root's standout work happens in Episode 7, safely before the Emmy qualification deadline.
The Emmys occasionally attempt to right their past wrongs with makeup awards later in a show's run, which is the most viable case for Ford, but I believe this is Stephen Root's award to lose.
I also think Nick Offerman is worth a tiny secondary nibble at 4 cents for Margo's Got Money Troubles.
Offerman shows up and delivers a very memorable supporting performance as an ex-pro wrestler and recovering addict trying to make amends with his daughter. He really gets to show off his incredible range in a small part, showcasing his hilarious timing and heartbreaking vulnerability, sometimes simultaneously.
Knowing how much the Academy loves Offerman, he might be worth a longshot sprinkle as well.
Who Will Probably Win: Stephen Root
Who Should Win: Harrison Ford
My Pick: Stephen Root (42 cents, 0.8 units)
Longshot Sprinkle: Nick Offerman (4 cents, 0.2 units)
Lead Actress – Drama
Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus (77 cents, 1 unit)
- Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus (77 cents)
- Keri Russell, The Diplomat (19 cents)
- Zendaya, Euphoria (5 cents)
- Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age (3 cents)
- Chase Infiniti, The Testaments (1 cent)
This is another classic scenario where the Academy clearly owes a performer an award for past snubs, but in this case, Rhea Seehorn genuinely earned it fair and square for her work in Pluribus.
Seehorn is essentially the entire show. She is in almost every single scene, often by herself, utilizing smart physical acting and subtle facial expressions whether she is digging, building, traveling, or frantically arguing with the alien hive mind taking over the world.
The overarching concept of Pluribus is completely bonkers, but Seehorn anchors it and makes the universe feel incredibly grounded and real.
The market currently views Pluribus as the biggest threat to dethrone The Pitt in the main drama category, largely on the back of her performance.
I have no notes or contrarian angles to offer here. She should have won for Better Call Saul years ago, she deserves to win this year, and I think she is going to win.
Pick: Rhea Seehorn (77 cents, 1 unit)
Lead Actor – Drama
Noah Wyle, The Pitt (96 cents, Pass)
- Noah Wyle, The Pitt (96, cents)
- Mark Ruffalo, Task (3 cents)
- Gary Oldman, Slow Horses (2 cents)
- Sterling K. Brown, Paradise (2 cents)
- Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat (1 cent)
Everybody loves a good comeback story, which is exactly what Noah Wyle provided last year when he won this award for his return to the medical genre in The Pitt.
He is currently listed as a suffocating 96-cent favorite to go back-to-back, with no other actor priced above 4 cents. I don't necessarily view Wyle's performance as some unstoppable, generational force, but it is difficult to imagine any of these other candidates generating enough momentum to put a dent in his armor.
Sterling K. Brown originally opened as the second name on the board for Paradise, but personally, I thought Gary Oldman (Slow Horses) and Mark Ruffalo (Task) turned in much stronger performances for their respective shows, and the market now somewhat reflects that.
That being said, the market is still showing very little respect for any of the secondary candidates, and I am struggling to identify which underdog actually possesses the narrative juice to pull off an upset.
A victory for anyone other than Wyle would be a pleasant surprise, but without a clear path for a specific dark horse, I'll pass on this category.
Who Will Probably Win: Noah Wyle
Who Should Win: Gary Oldman or Mark Ruffalo
Pick: Pass
Supporting Actor – Drama
Tom Pelphrey, Task (44 cents, 1 unit)
- Tom Pelphrey, Task (44 cents)
- Patrick Ball, The Pitt (36 cents)
- Shawn Hatosy, The Pitt (17 cents)
- Billy Crudup, The Morning Show (5 cents)
- Jack Lowden, Slow Horses (3 cents)
- Carlos-Manuel Vesga, Pluribus (1 cent)
I cannot believe Task was snubbed for Outstanding Drama Series. It was my favorite drama of the past year, and I initially thought it had a legitimate chance to win the top prize before the Academy completely shut it out of the main category.
Because my personal evaluation of the show is clearly much higher than the voters', I don't feel overwhelmingly confident about this bet, but Tom Pelphrey is phenomenal in this show as the charismatic, troubled thief on the run at 44 cents.
The Academy clearly respects the top-of-the-bill acting in Task, as Mark Ruffalo also secured a Lead Actor nomination, but they completely ignored Emilia Jones and Fabien Frankel in the supporting fields.
Meanwhile, The Pitt managed to land three nominations in Supporting Actor and four in Supporting Actress. While that imbalance is annoying, it might actually pave the way for a victory for Pelphrey.
I don't believe any of the actors nominated from The Pitt are overly crucial to the show's success; it mainly works because of the creative team behind the scenes and Noah Wyle's lead performance.
Having three actors from the same show on the ballot sometimes leads to cannibalization in the voter pool, which can split the fanbase and clear a path for a standout underdog.
Task is essentially a Heat-style two-hander, and it flat-out does not work without Pelphrey's intense, elevated performance. If the Academy is going to award this show at all, this should be the category.
I don't view Billy Crudup, Carlos-Manuel Vesga, or Jack Lowden as serious threats here. The market views this race as relatively wide open, and I will gladly back Pelphrey as the best pure performance of the bunch.
Pick: Tom Pelphrey (44 cents, 1 unit)
Supporting Actress – Drama
Karolina Wydra, Pluribus (10 cents, 0.2 units)
- Katherine LaNasa, The Pitt (69 cents)
- Karolina Wydra, Pluribus (10 cents)
- Sepideh Moafi, The Pitt (9 cents)
- Allison Janney, The Diplomat (4 cents)
- Julianne Nicholson, Paradise (3 cents)
- Fiona Dourif, The Pitt (2 cents)
- Taylor Dearden, The Pitt (2 cents)
My read on this category mirrors my logic in the Supporting Actor field. I see very little value in backing any of the four women nominated from The Pitt due to the possibility of a split vote.
Instead, I am taking a flyer on Karolina Wydra from Pluribus at 10 cents. The vast majority of Pluribus relies on the dynamic between Rhea Seehorn and Wydra.
Wydra is tasked with playing the representative of a "friendly" alien hive mind that is taking over the world. It is an intentionally robotic, oftentimes infantile performance that somehow manages to remain warm and occasionally even romantic. It carries a very high degree of difficulty, and she sells it perfectly.
The Academy clearly adores the performances in Pluribus; they even nominated Carlos-Manuel Vesga in the Supporting Actor category despite him barely having any screen time.
Because Pluribus is so heavily confined to a small handful of characters, it gives actors like Seehorn and Wydra a much larger runway to shine, whereas the ensemble nature of The Pitt inherently caps the standout potential for its supporting cast.
We could be looking at a scenario where the actors' branch goes all-in on Pluribus while the broader Academy favors The Pitt for the main series award.
Longshot Sprinkle: Karolina Wydra (10 cents, 0.2 units)
Lead Actor – Limited Series
Matthew Rhys, The Beast in Me (20 cents, 0.2 units)
- Oscar Isaac, Beef (72 cents)
- Matthew Rhys, The Beast In Me (20 cents)
- Riz Ahmed, Bait (6 cents)
- Charlie Hunnam, Monster (2 cents)
- Jason Bateman, Black Rabbit (1 cent)
Matthew Rhys is a heavy favorite to win the comedy acting prize for Widow’s Bay at 94 cents, so treating his 20-cent price tag here for The Beast In Me as a small sprinkle is entirely based on two extreme outcomes.
Either Rhys gets shockingly upset in the comedy category and the Academy uses this award as a makeup call to honor his incredible year, or voters are simply so enamored with him right now that they let him run the table and win both.
To be perfectly honest, he deserves it.
If we are strictly evaluating the performances, Rhys is arguably better in The Beast in Me than he is in Widow’s Bay. He really should have been submitted in the Supporting Actor category, as the show is mostly told through the perspective of Claire Danes' character while Rhys operates as the overarching, mysterious force driving the plot.
However, I understand Netflix wanting to avoid putting him head-to-head with David Harbour’s behemoth performance in DTF St. Louis.
I am not the world’s foremost Matthew Rhys scholar, but among his three most notable roles—The Americans, Widow’s Bay, and The Beast in Me—he turns in some of his best work here, albeit in a smaller role. He charms the audience into questioning his obvious guilt, only to rip the rug out from under you with a relentless, terrifying final reveal.
Oscar Isaac is the favorite here at 72 cents, and while he is very solid in Beef, truly one of his funniest roles, it is a relatively even-keel performance that doesn't quite measure up to his past cinematic work.
Isaac has the name brand and the better overall show, but Rhys offers nice value as a dark horse sprinkle.
Who Will Probably Win: Oscar Isaac
Who Should Win: Matthew Rhys
Longshot Sprinkle: Matthew Rhys (20 cents, 0.2 units)
Lead Actress – Limited Series
Carey Mulligan, Beef (40 cents, 0.75 units)
Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story (20 cents, 0.25 units)
- Carey Mulligan, Beef (40 cents)
- Sarah Snook, All Her Fault (30 cents)
- Sarah Pidgeon, Love Story (20 cents)
- Sally Field, Remarkably Bright Creatures (10 cents)
- Claire Danes, The Beast In Me (5 cents)
This is a strange market. Carey Mulligan is favored to win at 40 cents, and I have no issue with that. She is fantastic in Season 2 of Beef—hilarious, heartbreaking, and radiating genuine emotion. She deserves to be the favorite and will likely win.
However, Sarah Snook is sitting squarely in the number two spot at 30 cents for All Her Fault, and I believe she is vastly overpriced.
Snook should probably be priced closer to the rest of the field alongside Sally Field, Sarah Pidgeon, and Claire Danes, which would subsequently bump Mulligan into heavier favorite territory.
Getting the Academy to finally give Snook a trophy for Succession felt like pulling teeth for years; it would be bizarre for them to rush to reward her now for a rather mediocre show in All Her Fault.
Because of this pricing inefficiency, I am splitting my trades in this category. I will put 0.75 units on Mulligan at 40 cents, and sprinkle the remaining 0.25 units on a longshot—Sarah Pidgeon for Love Story at 20 cents.
While veteran actors like Sally Field and Claire Danes are great in their respective roles, they have both seen better days and have already won three Emmys apiece.
Pidgeon, on the other hand, delivers a strong breakout performance. Love Story was a surprise nominee across the board, proving the Academy liked it far more than critics expected.
Pidgeon plays Carolyn Bessette-Kennedy in a story told from her sympathetic perspective, and it doesn't portray the Kennedy family in a particularly fond light.
The story told on screen is slanted in favor of Pidgeon's character. However, it is the exact type of emotional, breakthrough performance that Emmy voters love to rally behind if they decide to look past the favorite.
Who Will Probably Win: Carey Mulligan
Who Should Win: Carey Mulligan
My Pick: Carey Mulligan (40 cents, 0.75 units)
Longshot Sprinkle: Sarah Pidgeon (20 cents, 0.25 units)
