Expert Fantasy Playoff Contest Projections: Patrick Mahomes, Leonard Fournette, Tyreek Hill Top Positions
Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images. Pictured: Bucs RB Leonard Fournette
- The seventh-most accurate ranker of the regular season, as graded by FantasyPros, reveals his fantasy football projections for NFL playoff contests.
- Find out why Patrick Mahomes, Leonard Fournette, Tyreek Hill and Travis Kelce top their positions below.
There’s already a lot of great content on general strategy for the FFPC Playoff Challenge and other fantasy football playoff contests, so I’m here to provide you with player projections for FFPC and PPR scoring as well as detailed guidance at the major positions to help you draft your lineups.
First, let’s run through the methodology of my projections.
I simulated the 2022 NFL playoffs 10,000 times to get every player’s floor, median and ceiling projection:
- Floor: A player exceeded this number 80%+ of the time in my sims.
- Median: A player exceeded this number 50%+ of the time in my sims.
- Ceiling: A player exceeded this number 20%+ of the time in my sims.
I went a step further than just assigning points-per-game projections for each player, too, by making specific adjustments to various players’ projections that I highlight under each position below.
Note: To toggle between my projections for FFPC and other contests that use straight-up PPR scoring, click on the “FFPC” and “PPR” tabs at the bottom of each embedded spreadsheet.
Fantasy Playoff QBs
No adjustments were needed here — all starting quarterbacks are relatively healthy entering the playoffs.
Patrick Mahomes is the clear No. 1 QB in fantasy playoff formats. The Chiefs have the second-best odds to win the Super Bowl (find futures odds here), and they play this weekend, which means their players have a chance to provide you with four games of production.
Fantasy Playoff RBs
Leonard Fournette — also known as “Playoff Lenny” — gets the top rank at running back, assuming he’s able to return to action for the Wild Card Round this weekend. The Bucs will likely have to lean on him even more with Chris Godwin and Antonio Brown out of the picture. Ronald Jones is expected to miss the opening round, meaning the Bucs likely don’t have the luxury to “ease” Fournette in.
Derrick Henry is expected to return to action in the Divisional Round next week. I’m assuming he’ll see something close to a “full” workload, however, the Titans are one of the weakest 1-seeds I’ve ever seen — they have the only the fifth-best odds to win the Super Bowl at +850 (bet $100 to win $850).
The chances of Henry providing you only one game of production is about 42%, which is quite high for a 1-seed. And if the Titans reach the Super Bowl — which would be the best case scenario for Henry’s value — he can provide you a max of only three games.
I’m projecting Sony Michel for 12.8 and Cam Akers for 8.5 points in the opening round. That said, I have Akers’ role only growing as the postseason unfolds, making it a near 50/50 split by the Super Bowl if the Rams make it.
I’m giving Clyde Edwards-Helaire a 50/50 chance of playing in this Sunday’s wild-card game. Therefore, he is getting a “0” this week, with him returning to action in half of my sims next week. As a result, Darrel Williams is getting a significant boost (when CEH is ruled out) in the other half of my sims.
Fantasy Playoff WRs
I have JuJu Smith-Schuster’s projected points rising through each round of the playoffs, with Ray-Ray McCloud’s falling. It doesn’t have too much impact on the overall projections, given it’s very unlikely the Steelers make it past the opening round.
Fantasy Playoff TEs
I have Darren Waller’s projection slowly rising throughout the playoffs. He was a bit rusty in his Week 18 return, but I’m expecting his production to improve.