Looking for the best NFL bets ahead of the Lions vs. Bills Thursday Night Football matchup? Well, look no further; our football expert has you covered with his three expert TNF picks. New prediction market players can also use the Kalshi promo code ACTION and our picks to unlock $25 in bonuses off tonight’s trading.
What Are the Best NFL Bets Today?
Three NFL bets stand out on the Thursday slate today. Handily their markets and contracts can all be found with Kalshi.
Kalshi prices markets in cents, and the price doubles as the percentage chance, so 51¢ means a 51% shot. Our NFL Prediction Market vs. Sportsbook guide explains why those numbers look different from American odds. Read our Kalshi Review for a deeper look at how pricing works.
| Pick | Kalshi Price | Implied Chance |
|---|---|---|
| Over 53.5 total points | Yes 51¢ | 51% |
| Josh Allen anytime touchdown | Yes 48¢ | 48% |
| Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving yards | Yes 53¢ | 53% |
Prices from Kalshi are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change. Returns shown are approximate and include your original stake.
Week 2 opens with Lions vs. Bills at 8:15 p.m. ET on Prime Video, the first regular-season game inside Buffalo's new Highmark Stadium. Both teams arrive 1-0 after wild finishes. Josh Allen went 20-of-29 for 334 yards and two touchdowns, adding two more scores on the ground in a 36-31 win at Houston.
Detroit built a 21-0 lead on New Orleans, then watched the Saints score on five of their final six possessions before escaping 31-30 in overtime. That sets up the best NFL bets today.
Kalshi Promo Code ACTION – TL;DR for NFL Bettors
The Kalshi promo code ACTION matches your first $25 in trades, which covers every pick below.
| Kalshi Welcome Offer | Trade $25, Get $25 Bonuses |
|---|---|
| Kalshi Promo Code | ACTION |
| Who qualifies | New users, 18+, not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA. |
| Regulator | CFTC |
| Offer Verified | Sept. 17, 2026 by Tom Fuller |
Sign up with Kalshi promo code ACTION, fund the account, and trade $25 to get $25. The offer applies to new users only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply, and Kalshi excludes AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
Best NFL Bets Today for Lions vs. Bills
- Lions vs. Bills Pick 1: Game Line – Over 53.5 Total Points (Yes 51¢)
Both teams cleared their Week 1 totals comfortably. Buffalo hung 409 total yards on the defense that ranked first in the NFL last season. Detroit surrendered 410 passing yards to Tyler Shough, as a second-half collapse befell the secondary.
The last meeting between these two produced 90 points in a 48-42 Bills win at Ford Field in December 2024, with Jared Goff throwing for 494 yards. Two offenses trending up, one shaky Detroit secondary, and a loud stadium debut point to a higher total.
The risk: Detroit listed three starting offensive linemen on Monday's report. Track it on our NFL Injuries page before you commit.
- Lions vs. Bills Pick 2: Anytime Touchdown – Josh Allen (Yes 48¢)
Allen scored twice on the ground in Week 1, both inside the red zone. Buffalo hands him the short-yardage work rather than James Cook, who managed 57 yards on 13 carries as Houston loaded the box.
Detroit has seen this act before. Allen has faced the Lions twice and reached the end zone himself both times, running in a 3-yard score on Thanksgiving in 2022 and then a pair of first-quarter touchdowns from 1 and 4 yards out in December 2024.
Buffalo won both games, 28-25 and 48-42, and Allen added four touchdown passes across the two meetings. Detroit allowed 30 points and a rushing score to New Orleans last week, so a sub-50¢ price on the most reliable goal-line runner in football reads well.
- Lions vs. Bills Pick 3: Dalton Kincaid 50+ Receiving Yards (Yes 53¢)
Kincaid posted 130 yards on five catches against Houston. Detroit allowed Saints tight end Noah Fant a touchdown and gave up chunk yardage over the middle all afternoon. New head coach Joe Brady leaned on a 60-40 pass in the opener. Kincaid needs one broken tackle to clear this number, with his speed and the Lions secondary losing the TEs.
Why Do These NFL Bets Work for the Kalshi Promo Code Offer?
The three picks above do double duty. Together they activate the offer, because the Kalshi promo code ACTION matches your first $25 in trades. Split the stake like this, and you hit the $25 in one sitting:
| Pick | Price | Stake | Return if correct |
|---|---|---|---|
| Over 53.5 total points | 51¢ | $10 | $19.61 |
| Josh Allen anytime TD | 48¢ | $8 | $16.67 |
| Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving | 53¢ | $7 | $13.21 |
| Total | $25 | $49.48 |
Prices from Kalshi are correct at the time of publishing and subject to change. Returns shown are approximate and include your original stake.
That $25 satisfies the trade requirement, and the matching $25 lands as bonus funds on top of whatever these three picks return. One Thursday night session unlocks the bonus, which then carries into the rest of Week 2 and any NFL Futures markets you like.
Where Do You Use the Kalshi $25 Bonus?
Week 2 rolls on all weekend, so the bonus stretches across four more windows:
- 1:00 p.m. ET Sunday: Saints at Ravens on CBS. Tyler Shough threw for 410 yards in Week 1, and Baltimore hung 41 points on Indianapolis.
- 4:25 p.m. ET Sunday: Commanders at Cowboys on FOX. Both NFC East rivals dropped their openers by one score.
- Sunday Night Football: Colts at Chiefs, 8:20 p.m. ET on NBC. Arrowhead hosts its second prime-time game in eight days.
- Monday Night Football: Giants at Rams, 8:15 p.m. ET on ESPN. New York arrives off a 28-20 win over Dallas; Los Angeles off a 27-7 loss in Melbourne.
How Do You Claim the Kalshi Promo Code ACTION?
Five steps get you trading:
- Use our Kalshi promo code link to head over to the prediction market app.
- Open the Kalshi app or site and select sign up.
- Enter Kalshi promo code ACTION during registration.
- Verify your identity with your name, date of birth, and Social Security number.
- Deposit funds by debit card, bank transfer, or crypto
- Place $25 in trades to unlock the matching $25
If you want some more insight on how to make the most of your Kalshi promo code, our How to Bet on Kalshi guide walks through your first trade.
Best NFL Bets Today – FAQs
What are the best NFL bets today? Our three best NFL bets today are Over 53.5 points (51¢), Josh Allen anytime touchdown (48¢), and Dalton Kincaid 50+ receiving yards (53¢) in Lions vs. Bills.
What is the Kalshi promo code? The Kalshi promo code is ACTION. New users who enter it trade $25 and get $25. Compare it against other Best Prediction Market Promos, including every Polymarket promo code, in our Kalshi vs. Polymarket breakdown.
Where do I find more NFL markets? Browse NFL Odds, NFL Futures, and NFL Prediction Market Promos for the full Week 2 slate.
Lock in the best NFL bets today before the 8:15 p.m. ET kickoff.
Certain limitations apply. The offer is available to new users only, subject to the terms and conditions. 18+ only. Restrictions and eligibility requirements apply. Event contract trading involves significant risk and is not appropriate for everyone. Please carefully consider if it is appropriate for you in light of your personal financial circumstances. Kalshi products are not available in all jurisdictions. See kalshi.com/regulatory for more information. Not available in AZ, IL, MA, MD, MI, MT, NV, OH, and WA.
