Giants vs. Rams Odds & Betting Predictions - September 22, 2026

LIVE BET

J. Dart early exit. Kalshi won’t refund, but TD, 2+ and o33.5 all back in the wallet. Adjusting

LIVE BET

Small middle shot with no Puka. Jameis good for a drive or two at some point

NFL POD (forgot to add)

I'm not looking to overreact to what the Giants did against Dallas in Week 1. The offensive line played extremely well in that game, but I still view this as an average at best unit, and I think this is a much tougher matchup for them up front. The Rams got gashed by San Francisco in Australia last week, but I'm not willing to completely throw out my preseason evaluation of this run defense, even without Myles Garrett. This under has the exact type of outs I'm looking for when fading a primary running back: a matchup disadvantage, poor game script, an expanded backfield rotation, and a lack of explosiveness. All of which make 51.5 to 52.5 a pretty high number for a player with this many paths to going under.

Projecting 6.93, @The_Oddsmaker projects 6.71

Expect this to be another lower scoring game which means more runs for Skattebo. If week 1 tells us anything, Harbaugh is gonna want to grind out games with the run game and he’s the clear RB1 in the run game. Had 18 carries week 1 so clearly they want to feature him even if he’s not really involved in the pass game

There may be some value on the receptions prop for Blake Corum. THE BLITZ is projecting him to record 0.58 receptions, and the oddsmakers are implying 1.05. The model believes there is a 57% chance he records fewer than 0.5 receptions. If you can get the under at +163 or better, there is some great value here. This play is good down to at least +103. Love THE BLITZ? Get all of Carty’s sports betting projections at EV Analytics: https://evanalytics.com/products/nfl-premium-subscription?ref=zdlkmgz

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Tailing @The_Oddsmaker

Stafford always has a pretty high floor in this market. He doesn’t scramble much, avoids sacks, and is one of the best pure passers we’ve ever seen. The market has 18 seasons of evidence telling us that, so this isn’t some “Stafford sucked in Week 1, let’s fade him again” angle. It’s actually the opposite. I think there are a bunch of ways the Rams offense can play well tonight and still help this under. With Puka Nacua looking likely to sit, I expect the Rams to lean a little more on the run. They were at a ridiculous -12.3% PROE in the opener, and there’s no way in hell I’m projecting them to be that run heavy again, but I’m still only around +2% PROE tonight. Ideally Kyren Williams and Blake Corum are ripping off chunk gains and keeping Stafford’s volume down. When Stafford does throw, I’d expect more downfield looks to Davante Adams and Terrance Ferguson. The clown car WR group behind Puka is also pretty ugly. Jordan Whittington, who would’ve been the most natural short-area replacement, is doubtful. Konata Mumpfield could inherit some of that role, but I don’t expect Stafford to pepper him with targets. Xavier Smith, Tutu Atwell and CJ Daniels all profile more as downfield/big-play options. And that’s actually perfect for this bet. We’re totally fine with Stafford completing deep passes. A 20+ yard completion advances the offense quickly, shortens the drive and can put the Rams in position to score. A long TD is even better because the drive ends immediately and a Rams lead encourages more rushing. The Giants also committed a league-high four defensive pass interference penalties last week. DPI on a deep shot is basically the dream outcome here: all the field-position benefit of a completion without adding one to Stafford’s total. That’s also why I always laugh when people say unders mean rooting for “nothing to happen.” You’re rooting for very specific things. Efficient runs. Chunk passes. DPI. Short drives. Touchdowns. Long Giants possessions that bleed clock. There’s plenty going on. The Giants should be fairly run heavy themselves, which can keep Stafford standing on the sideline and lower the overall play volume. I think both teams could approach this game in a way that naturally suppresses total snaps, and completion props are directly tied to that. I have Stafford closer to 20.8 completions with around a 58% chance to stay under 21.5, but I think a lot of the underlying factors lean even more toward the under than that raw projection shows. With Puka’s status creating so many moving pieces in the other markets, this is my Prop of the Game. The rooting guide is pretty simple: Rams run game humming, Stafford pushing the ball downfield when he does throw, LA getting ahead early, and the Giants putting together long clock-killing drives on the other side.

Extended Rest Unders Overall: 185-137-6,57% (ROI:10%) Season:0-0-0, 0% (ROI: 0%) Night Unders Overall: 204-146-5,58% (ROI:12%) Season:0-2-0,0% (ROI:-100%) #TSA

This is NFL overreaction week, and we’re looking to take advantage by backing the Rams at a discounted number. The Giants are coming off an emotional divisional game at home against one of their biggest rivals in an electric atmosphere. They must now travel across the country for a completely different challenge, making this a big time letdown spot for New York. Meanwhile, the Rams return home after being humiliated in Australia. Their performance was undeniably poor, but we don’t believe it accurately reflected the quality of this team. We still have Los Angeles rated as one of the NFL’s best teams, and we’re not allowing one ugly result to drastically change our evaluation. Our model agrees, projecting the Rams to win by 10.14 points. That gives us a fair spread of Rams -10.14 and nearly four points of value at the current line of -6.5. The Giants now have to face an angry Sean McVay, who should have his team prepared and motivated to make a statement. Getting Aaron Donald back provides a major boost to a defense looking to respond. The absences of Puka Nacua and Myles Garrett certainly hurt, but the Rams still have plenty of talent, and McVay remains one of the best coaches and offensive minds in football. “Bouncing back after a loss” can be an overused betting narrative, but McVay has consistently delivered in this situation. His teams have covered 63% of the time following a loss. The Rams will also have nearly three additional days of rest compared to the Giants, giving them another meaningful preparation advantage. This is an ideal response spot for Los Angeles and a difficult emotional, travel and scheduling spot for New York. We expect the Rams to remind everyone why they remain one of our highest rated teams. Give me the Rams -6.5.

Williams has had 15+ rec yards in seven straight games and averaged 8.0 yards per catch in W1. With the Giants D letting Williams average 6.2 yards per catch, for 31 yards, we should see Williams cover this line easily.

@GDAWG5000 https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/nfl-touchdown-show-week-2/id1004530793?i=1000790412504