Bundesliga Updated Betting Odds, Picks and Predictions: RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin
KAI PFAFFENBACH/POOL/AFP via Getty Images. PIctured: Timo Werner
- RB Leipzig are -340 favorites over Hertha Berlin in the updated odds for their Bundesliga match on Wednesday afternoon.
- The Over/Under for the match is set at 3.5 goals with the Under juiced to -130.
- BJ Cunningham previews RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin and uses his betting model to suggest a value bet.
RB Leipzig vs. Hertha Berlin Odds
|RB Leipzig odds||-340
|Hertha Berlin odds||+700
|Time||12:30 p.m. ET|
Red hot Hertha Berlin heads to Red Bull arena to take on third-place RB Leipzig on Wednesday afternoon. Hertha Berlin are currently in 11th place but they are only three points off a Europa League spot, so they have plenty to play for.
As for RB Leipzig, they are looking to solidify their holding on a Champions League spot for next season. Die Roten Bullen could draw even with Borussia Dortmund in second place with a win over Hertha Berlin on Wednesday.
RB Leipzig embarrassed Mainz, 5-0, last Sunday and look to have found their form. Timo Werner bagged his second hat trick versus Mainz this season and pulled within three goals of Robert Lewandowski for top scorer in the Bundesliga.
Die Roten Bullen has earned a +13.47 expected goal differential at home this season, though much of their success at home has come against the bottom of the table, going 7-0-0 with a 26-to-5 aggregate score against the bottom half of the Bundesliga.
Leipzig showed a little rust right after the break in a 1-1 draw with Freiburg, but when their attack gets going its almost impossible to stop.
Expected goals (also known as xG) is an advanced statistic that gives an indication of whether results are based on sustainable factors like a steady creation of scoring chances, or whether it is down to aspects such as luck or outstanding goalkeeping.
Die Alte Dame have arguably been the best team since the Bundesliga returned to action. With a 3-0 win at Hoffenheim and a 4-0 win in the Berlin Derby, they had the best goal differential since the break going into the midweek fixtures. However, those results are deceiving as the expected goal differential in those two games is only +0.66.
Home-field advantage has been muted since the return to action and that should help Hertha Berlin, who have not lost on the road since Nov. 24. The Old Lady has amassed 19 points and a -0.50 xG differential in 13 away matches this season.
Aside from their consistent road form, Hertha Berlin has been all over the map. They have wins over Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg and a draw with Bayern Munich, but they’ve struggled against the bottom of the table.
RB Leipzig won the reverse fixture, 4-2, at the Olympic Stadium in Berlin. Die Roten Bullen was dominant for most of the game, according to the expected goals report. Timo Werner showed his goal-scoring prowess bagging two goals for RB Leipzig.
RB Leipzig are clearly the better side in this matchup and their 5-0 win over Mainz looked like a return to form for Die Roten Bullen.
My projections for the game agree with that notion as my model has RB Leipzig projected for 2.64 xG and Hertha Berlin pegged for 0.62 xG.
Given RB Leipzig’s success against weaker opposition, I have no problem backing Die them to win this match by multiple goals.
My Pick: RB Leipzig -1.5 (-106)