Polymarket gives the Strait of Hormuz about an 18% chance of returning to normal traffic by December 31. But “normal” has a specific meaning in this market: IMF PortWatch must report a seven-day average of at least 60 ship transits a day before year-end.
The latest daily count, September 13, was just eight. To win, Yes buyers need traffic to recover to an average 7.5 times that daily reading, with 104 days remaining.
Strait of Hormuz Traffic Odds
June shows how difficult that could be. After the June 17 U.S.-Iran agreement, which included free passage through the strait, PortWatch recorded 513 transits between June 18 and July 5. That works out to roughly 29 a day. Even the busiest single day of the war reached only 51, and the seven-day average stayed below 60.
Another agreement could help. But this Polymarket contract needs a recovery that brings back roughly twice the daily traffic seen during that June reopening.
What the price is saying
For context, February’s pre-war average was 89.4 transits a day. The market’s threshold is about two-thirds of that level, so traffic does not need to recover completely for Yes to win.
The prices rise by five or six percentage points with each extra month. Put simply, traders are allowing roughly a 6% chance of reaching the target each month if it has not already happened. The board shows little sign of one particular month being the likely turning point.
That leaves two big questions.
Can an agreement arrive early enough? After June’s deal, Vortexa’s tanker count roughly tripled within a week, then stopped rising. Shipping companies, insurers and crews need time to return, and PortWatch publishes its figures with a delay of about four days.
An agreement in early December would leave some time for that process. One later in the month would leave much less room for traffic to recover and produce a qualifying weekly average. The first week of December is a useful checkpoint, though it is not a firm cutoff.
Would enough ships actually return? June’s agreement reopened the route, but traffic during that period averaged less than half the required level. A stronger recovery would need participation from operators that largely stayed away, including LNG carriers, fertilizer exporters and major oil shippers.
What’s actually on the calendar
There is no clear scheduled breakthrough to point to.
A planned Iran-Gulf meeting in Salalah, intended partly to agree shipping routes through the strait, was postponed indefinitely on September 13. Reporting on the postponement also said Trump administration officials wanted future U.S.-Iran talks to focus on Tehran’s nuclear program.
That could leave reopening the strait tied to a broader agreement, adding more issues to resolve before shipping can recover.
Conditions on the water remain difficult. September 13’s eight transits amounted to about 9% of the pre-war daily average. The IRGC claimed strikes on eight tankers on September 9, although independent confirmation was limited. War-risk insurance for a supertanker was quoted at around 40 times pre-war levels, with several major marine insurers no longer offering coverage.
A deal is still possible. But there is little here to suggest ships are about to return at the pace this contract needs.
The trade
My preferred position is December 31 No at 83 cents.
The thesis is that traffic will struggle to reach the required weekly average before year-end, even if negotiations make progress.
December has the most recorded trading volume on the board, at $11.8 million, compared with about $726,000 for October. At 83 cents, a winning No share returns $1, for a profit of 17 cents. That is about a 20% return over the remaining 104 days, before fees.
