2024 The Sentry Predictions: Bet Collin Morikawa, Matt Fitzpatrick, Cam Davis

Here's everything you need to know about The Sentry — our expert predictions and bets for the PGA Tour's first event of 2024.

A new golf season upon us and with it, a new version of this betting article. The idea is simple – I am going to start with a bankroll of $1,000 total and will put $100 of that into play for each tournament. I am a firm believer in transparency when it comes to sports betting, and this new format will allow us to easily keep track of how the season is going.

More importantly, I plan to do a giveaway if we end the season with a profit. Any dollar amount over the original $1,000 bankroll will be given out to readers of this article. I haven’t figured out the specifics on how you can qualify for the giveaway, but reading this article each week and hitting the check mark at the bottom goes a long way for yours truly.

The goal is simple – let’s have some fun each week and hopefully make a profit along the way.

As always, we open the calendar year with The Sentry. It is no longer the Sentry Tournament of Champions, as it now includes most of the top 50 in the Official World Golf Rankings. There are 59 golfers set to tee it up at the Plantation Course at Kapalua. There will not be a cut this week, which means all golfers are guaranteed to play four rounds on this beautiful course in Hawaii.

The course is one of the most unique tracks on the PGA Tour. For starters, it’s a par-73 that features four par-5s and three par-3s. It measures nearly 7,600 yards, yet it essentially turns into a wedge and putting contest each year. How is that possible? Due to the elevation changes and the rolling hills, we are going to see plenty of 400+ yard drives.

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The fairways at Kapalua are extremely wide (46 yards on average in the landing areas). Most would assume this would favor the bombers, but there are holes where everyone will see their drives roll out an additional 30 to 50 yards.

If you think the fairways are big, wait until you see the greens, which are over 8,700 square feet on average. With the wide fairways and large greens, golfers hit 82% of the greens in regulation here last year.

Believe it or not, the best comp course for Kapalua is Augusta National. Driving accuracy is not needed, there are four par-5s to attack, and the sloping fairways result in a lot of uneven lies on approach shots.

However, the scoring at the two courses is drastically different. In fact, this has been the easiest course on the PGA Tour each of the last three years. With moderate wind in the forecast this week, we can expect some low scores once again.

• Current bankroll: $1,000
• In play this week: $100

Here are the five bets that I am rolling with this week:

2024 The Sentry Predictions

Collin Morikawa Outright +1400 (bet365)

Bet $20 to pay $300

If you remember last year, Collin Morikawa had one hand on the trophy at this event. He held a commanding six-shot lead heading into Sunday and had some short game mishaps that allowed Jon Rahm to ultimately catch him and steal the tournament.

While the result clearly wasn’t what Morikawa wanted, he has now finished T7 or better at this event in each of the last four years. He enters the week in excellent form, as he finished T7 at the Hero World Challenge, won the ZOZO Championship and had the fourth-best 72-hole score at the Tour Championship.

He’s a very accurate driver of the ball and one of the best iron players in the world, so he will pepper these fairways and greens. If the putter cooperates, I like his chances to contend again.

Bet Morikawa outright at bet365 with our bet365 bonus code.

Tom Kim Outright +2500 (FanDuel)

Bet $20 to pay $520

It feels like Tom Kim has been around forever, so it’s hard to believe that he’s only 21 years old. He came out firing as soon as he got his chance on the PGA Tour by winning the Wyndham Championship and since backing that up with two victories at the Shriners Children's Open.

Kim tends to play his best on courses that require precision with wedges and irons, and Kapalua certainly fits that bill. In his debut here last year, he finished T5 with a score of 22-under par. The only weakness in his game is his around the green play, but that’s not a big concern when golfers are hitting 85% of greens in regulation at this course.

Bet Tom Kim outright at FanDuel with our FanDuel bonus code.

Matt Fitzpatrick Outright +3000 (bet365)

Bet $20 to pay $620

Matt Fitzpatrick is my final outright play at The Sentry, and he is on the record saying he plays his best on difficult courses. While Kapalua does not meet that criteria, I love his combination of form and odds.

The 2022 U.S. Open winner's swing speed has improved drastically over the last couple of years, and he hits a lot of low bullets. That should really play well at Kapalua with all of the rolling hills on the fairways.

In terms of his form, he has three top-four finishes (including a win) in his last seven starts worldwide. He’s also one of the best putters in the field, which should really come in handy at a birdie-fest. In his debut here last year, he finished in a tie for seventh.

Cameron Davis Top 10 +425 (bet365)

Bet $20 to pay $105

I have two placement bets on the card this week. The first is for Cam Davis to finish in the top 10 at +425. If you can find a book that pays ties in full and offers good odds, I highly recommend it. For our purposes, this bet does include the dead-heat reduction.

Davis didn’t play great at the Australian Open recently, but he has still finished in the top seven in five of his last eight starts worldwide. He’s a quality driver of the ball, he’s a strong iron player, and he’s an above-average putter on Bermuda greens.

In his only appearance here in 2021, he finished in a tie for 10th.

J.T. Poston Top 20 +190 (DraftKings)

Bet $20 to pay $58

J.T. Poston is one of my favorite golfers for placement bets, especially on easy courses like this one. He makes a ton of birdies and can light it up on the greens. In fact, he’s first in this field in Strokes Gained: Putting over the last six months. His ball striking has improved leaps and bounds over the last couple of years, and he tends to play his best golf on Bermuda courses.

He’s played here two times over the last five years and has finished T21 and T11. I like these odds for him to finish in the top 20.

Cheers to 2024, the year of the dragon.