The 2026 U.S. Open is upon us.
This week's tournament at Shinnecock Golf Club in Southampton, NY, is the golf season's third major tournament.
This tournament is steeped in history, and that time has proven that virtually anything can happen, so let's dive into our 2026 U.S. Open picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
Outright Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+600)
By Jake Zach
There's a narrative going into this week that Scheffler has had a "down year" by his standards, and that's created something rare: value on the best player in the world.
His odds are longer than we've seen in a while, but that's actually what makes this pick so compelling. When the market starts sleeping on Scottie Scheffler, that's usually when you want to be on him.
Here's the thing about Shinnecock Hills: it's not a course that rewards one-dimensional players. It demands everything. Ball striking, wind management, strategic positioning off the tee, elite iron play into demanding greens, and a short game that can handle the most creative and difficult recovery situations in golf.
That is essentially a checklist written for Scottie Scheffler. He doesn't just check those boxes, he's arguably the best in the world in each of those categories.
The fairways at Shinnecock are generous but deceptive. You have to be in the right part of the fairway, not just the fairway. Scheffler's ability to shape shots, control trajectory, and hit specific sections of fairways is as good as anyone in the world. On a course where position off the tee directly dictates how difficult your approach will be, that precision is enormously valuable.
And then there's the green complexes, which Scheffler himself called the greatest challenge on the property. His short game and putting under pressure has been elite. The tight lies, creative recovery shots, and pressure putts that Shinnecock consistently serves up are exactly where he separates himself from the field.
The Grand Slam motivation is real too. This isn't just another tournament for Scheffler — it's the one that would cement his legacy among the all-time greats. That hunger matters on a course that will inevitably test his patience and decision making at every turn.
As for the rest of the field, Rory McIlroy is the only other player you could make a similarly strong case for, but the feeling here is that Rory's destiny this year was in Augusta and will be at The Open Championship.
Rahm, DeChambeau, and Koepka all have the game to contend, but none of them bring the complete, top-to-bottom package that Scheffler does on a course this demanding.
The simplest argument for Scheffler this week is also the most convincing one: Shinnecock Hills is going to be brutally hard, and the hardest courses in the world tend to be won by the best players in the world. Scheffler is that player. Fade him at your own risk.
Outright Pick: Si Woo Kim (+4500)
What would Si Woo Kim's price be if we had one victory in 2026? What would it have been if he had won twice?
Those are questions we will never know the answer to, but this lack of "win equity" isn't playing well in the market early Monday for names like Kim and Ludvig Aberg, who find themselves drifting to start the week.
Kim ranked inside the top 10 of my model for Weighted Strokes Gained Total, Recent Form (L24 Rounds), Avoiding Mistakes and Weighted Scoring.
I don't really have room to do much outside of a shot or two after taking Scheffler, but Kim was the swing I decided to take on the slate.
Top 5 Pick: Sam Burns (+850)
It feels like Burns is in contention at some point in every tournament that he plays in.
He seems to always find a way to take himself out of contention, but he's still having a career year.
He's been a top 10 and top 25 machine, and he's gaining strokes in all facets of his game. He's the best putter on TOUR, so it's certainly encouraging to see him improve on the tee-to-green front.
The wider fairways here should help him off the tee, and his game seems to be a great fit for the U.S. Open.
He finished T7 at Oakmont last year and T9 at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2024.
First-Round Leader Pick: Jon Rahm (+3300)
By Tony Sartori
Driving is essential this week. The course is long and extremely penal if players miss the fairway, making both distance and accuracy critical for success.
Thick, rough and knee-high fescue surrounds the course, making precise approach shots into its challenging green complexes extremely difficult if you hit a poor drive. That setup makes Jon Rahm a strong option this week.
One of the tournament favorites, Rahm enters in outstanding form with two wins and five runner-up finishes over his past 11 tournaments. While many of those results came on LIV, one of the runner-up finishes was at the most recent major, the PGA Championship.
Rahm is one of the best drivers of the golf ball in the world, combining accuracy with elite distance. He finished sixth in strokes gained: off the tee at the PGA Championship.
Matchup Pick: Si Woo Kim (-125) Over Justin Rose
I realize this number has moved from its -125 open, but I only have one matchup so far this week. I can't make up another play to discuss in this section when options move quickly inside my Discord channel.
In fairness, I am not fully crediting myself for this answer, even though the channel helped move it marginally. There are two parts beyond that for why this wager has moved.
- Kim remains undervalued every single week. The market continues to open him lower than they should because of his lack of recent titles. We see this correction take place every Monday.
- Justin Rose is a volatile option who is seeing a boost because of his "major championship" pedigree.
I am not a believer that Rose should be priced in these general ranges he gets during grand slam events. We have seen the good end of that production at the Masters and PGA Championship, but the floor for Rose is lower than most elite options in the world — something we have witnessed with the Englishman missing the cut at the U.S. Open four of his last five attempts.
I would not be taking this bet into its new -160 (or higher) range. However, shop around and see if you can find better at your location. If nothing else, shop around and see if Kim has any opponents you like him against for the week.
If all else fails, bet Maverick McNealy to make the cut. That is something I have done inside this article during both majors this year and will do again this week.
When is the 2026 U.S. Open?
The 2026 U.S. Open tees off on Thursday, June 18, 2026.
- What: 2026 U.S. Open
- When: June 18-21, 2026
- Where: Shinnecock Golf Club, Southampton, N.Y.
- Par: 70
- Length:7,440 Yards
2026 U.S. Open TV Info, Channel, Streaming, Schedule
Round 1: Thursday, June 18
- Live stream: Peacock (7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET)
- TV coverage: USA (6:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET); NBC Sports Network (5 to 8 p.m. ET)
Round 2: Friday, June 19
- Live stream: Peacock (7:30 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET)
- TV coverage: NBC Sports Network (6:30 a.m. to 1:30 p.m and 7:30 p.m. to 8:30 p.m.); NBC (1:30 to 7:30 p.m)
Round 3: Saturday, June 20
- Live stream: Peacock (10 a.m. to noon ET)
- TV coverage: USA (10 a.m. to noon ET); NBC (noon to 8 p.m. ET)
Round 4: Sunday, June 21
- Live stream: Peacock (9 a.m. to noon ET)
- TV coverage: USA (9 a.m. to noon ET); NBC (noon to 7 p.m. ET)
