Welcome back, my friends.
It's hard to believe, but the year's third major is already upon us. The U.S. Open is typically the toughest test of golf every year, as the USGA tries to make the hosting course as difficult as possible. They love to tiptoe the line between fair and unfair.
The last time the U.S. Open was held at Shinnecock Hills Golf Club was in 2018 and many golfers said that the USGA "lost the golf course." This was the course where Phil Mickelson infamously hit a putt that was about to roll off the green, and he ran over to it and hit it again while it was still moving (about to go down the fairway 40+ yards).
We have a fun week ahead; let's make the most of it.
Let's take a look at my U.S. Open picks and PGA TOUR predictions for this week's major tournament at Shinnecock Hills.
2026 US Open Course Preview: Shinnecock Hills Golf Club
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club is one of the oldest golf courses in America. It is a links-style course that should provide an extremely tough test for this week's field. The last time the U.S. Open was held here was in 2018 when Brooks Koepka won with a score of +1.
The course is a Par 70 that measures 7,440 yards. While this is certainly not the longest U.S. Open course we've seen, it's still quite lengthy for a course that only has two Par 5s on the scorecard.
The course is a bit more generous off the tee than most U.S. Open venues. Every hole except the 13th has at least 30-yard-wide fairways.
While distance is always an advantage, I expect it to be less of an advantage than we usually see at this event.
Hitting the fairways here will be of utmost importance, as the property has 5" thick rough and knee-high fescue. In my model, I don't have driving distance weighted at all. Instead, I am looking at strokes gained off the tee and total driving, which combines distance and accuracy.
The greens at Shinnecock are massive (8,800 square feet on average), but they will still be difficult to hit in regulation. In 2018, golfers hit 71% of the fairways but only 55% of the greens.
One of the most glaring statistics from that U.S. Open was that the scrambling success rate was only 40%. A tidy and imaginative short game will really come in handy this week.
Even the longest hitters are going to have a lot of long iron approach shots this week. In 2018, 44% of approach shots were hit from over 200 yards. For reference, the PGA TOUR average is only 23%. Essentially, we can expect golfers to hit nearly twice as many long iron shots as they would at a standard event.
Ultimately, I expect this course to test all aspects of a golfer's game.
If you have a weakness, this course will expose it. Rather than betting on the pure bombers like I usually do at the U.S. Open, I am looking to bet on those who have an elite all-around game.
2026 U.S. Open Predictions, Picks
My betting card looks a little different this week. I usually like to pepper the mid-range with four-to-five bets, but I am taking the bait with the best odds we've seen on Scheffler in a long time.
When you are betting a golfer at such low odds, you can't afford to load up on more outright bets because you might run into a scenario where you hit an outright bet and only break even for the week. That's not what we are looking to do.
For the U.S. Open this week, I am making one outright bet and four placement bets.
Scottie Scheffler to Win +600 (bet365)
I thought long and hard about my bets for this week.
It's always tempting to chase the bigger odds, but I can't get over the fact that Scheffler is best suited to win at this course, and that his odds are better than they have been in a long time.
Scheffler hasn't won since The American Express, which honestly feels like a drought for him. However, since that win, he has three runner-up finishes and three more top four finishes.
Strangely enough, his ball striking has been much better in the last couple of months. The short game has let him down a bit, which is why he hasn't been able to rack up any more wins.
Shinnecock Hills is going to test all aspects of a golfer's game, and there's not a more complete golfer in the world than Scheffler.
If he wins this week, he'll become the seventh golfer ever to complete the career grand slam.
Sam Burns Top 5 +850 (FanDuel)
It feels like Burns is in contention at some point in every tournament that he plays in.
He seems to always find a way to take himself out of contention, but he's still having a career year.
He's been a top 10 and top 25 machine, and he's gaining strokes in all facets of his game. He's the best putter on TOUR, so it's certainly encouraging to see him improve on the tee-to-green front.
The wider fairways here should help him off the tee, and his game seems to be a great fit for the U.S. Open.
He finished T7 at Oakmont last year and T9 at Pinehurst No. 2 in 2024.
Russell Henley Top 10 +340 (FanDuel)
Henley used to be a golfer who would dominate the weak-field events and struggle in the majors.
While he hasn't added much distance off the tee (which is usually needed in majors), he has found a way to play well on championship courses.
He finished T3 at the Masters earlier this year, he won at Bay Hill last year, and he finished in the top 10 at least year's U.S. Open and the Open Championship.
He's accurate off the tee, he's an elite long iron player, and he has one of the best short games of anyone in the field.
Don't be surprised to see Henley's name on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday.
Patrick Cantlay Top 10 +470 (FanDuel)
Believe it or not, Cantlay grades out as the fifth best golfer in my model this week (yes, I double and triple-checked all of the inputs).
He's played more golf this year, and he's been able to get into a better rhythm. He's finished in the top 20 in five of his last six starts, and he has three top 10 finishes during that stretch.
I'm not sure if he'll ever win a major, but he certainly has the game to contend at one. He finished T3 at the U.S. Open in 2024 and has a total of three top 15 finishes at this event in the last four years.
He's one of a handful of golfers who are top 30 in this field in strokes gained off the tee, strokes gained approach, and strokes gained around the green.
Tom Kim Top 20 +500 (Caesars)
Kim isn't your prototypical U.S. Open style golfer.
He's short off the tee and isn't the most powerful golfer, which can make it tough to hit it out of the thick rough. However, he's had great success at the U.S. Open in his career.
He's finished T33 or better in each of the last four editions of this event. He's accurate off the tee, and he's been striping his irons recently. Over the last three months, he's ninth in the field in strokes gained on approach.
He's also an above-average scrambler. If he has a decent week on the greens, I like his chances of finishing in the top 20.
