This week, we head to TPC Southwind in Memphis, Tennessee, for the first event of the FedExCup — the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
While many golfers look to get into form over the course of the tournament, there are more ways to bet on this tournament than just who will emerge victorious on Sunday.
For more instant gratification, we turn to the first-round leader market to find value on who will sit atop the leaderboard when play comes to an end on Thursday.
Here are my favorite FedEx St. Jude Championship first-round leader picks and PGA Tour predictions for Thursday's opening round.
FedEx St. Jude Championship First-Round Leader Picks
First-Round Leader Pick: Scottie Scheffler (+1400, FanDuel)
The greens at TPC Southwind are small and guarded by hazards, making them difficult to hit. Last year, the greens in regulation percentage at this venue was just 58.4%, roughly 8% lower than the PGA Tour average.
Therefore, those who excelled with their mid- to long irons separated themselves from the pack. In the 2025 edition of the FedEx St. Jude Championship, each of the top two finishers ranked inside the top eight in the field in strokes gained: approach.
No other strokes-gained category showed a similar trend.
This setup makes Scottie Scheffler a strong target in this market.
The best iron player in the world, Scheffler ranks in the 99th percentile in strokes gained: approach. It is therefore not surprising that he has finished inside the top four in each of his past two appearances at TPC Southwind.
His rare missed cut at the Genesis Scottish Open appears to be behind him, as Scheffler has finished inside the top four in each of his past two events.
First-Round Leader Pick: Sam Burns (+2800, DraftKings)
Another golfer worth targeting in Thursday’s opening round is Sam Burns. Like Scheffler, Burns fits this course well.
This season, he ranks in the 94th percentile in strokes gained: approach. Burns also handles his mid- to long irons well, which is key at TPC Southwind.
Last year, nearly 42% of approach shots came from the 150-200-yard range, well above the PGA Tour average. Entering this week, Burns ranks in the 89th percentile in strokes gained: approach from that distance.
He also enters this week in strong form with five straight top-20 finishes, including two consecutive top-three finishes at major championships.
