While we do have some fall golf to look forward to, we only have three events left in the official PGA TOUR season. This week, we have the first FedExCup Playoff event — the FedEx St. Jude Championship.
The top 70 in the FedExCup standings will tee it up this week in Memphis, Tennessee, with a lot on the line. The top 50 in the standings after this week will lock up full PGA TOUR status and secure a spot in every Signature Event in 2027.
I'm taking a slightly different approach with the betting card this week. Let's dive into the betting preview.
Let's take a look at my FedEx St. Jude Championship picks and PGA Tour predictions for this week's tournament at TPC Southwind.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Preview
Before we get to this week's picks, let's talk about the course. TPC Southwind is a Par 70 that measures 7,288 yards. This is a course where you can score if you are hitting the ball well, and you can rack up big numbers if not. As a whole, the difficulty of the course is close to PGA TOUR average. The winning score has been between -15 and -17 in each of the last five years.
The fairways at TPC Southwind are narrow (25-28 yards) and tree-lined. While this is a driver-heavy course (78% driver usage rate last year), this is not a bomber's course.
Driving Accuracy is much more important than Driving Distance. In fact, the Greens in Regulation rate from the fairway last year was 40% higher than it was from the rough. For my off-the-tee metrics this week, I like Good Drive Percentage and Strokes Gained: Off the Tee.
Approach play is important every week, but even more so at TPC Southwind. The greens here are tiny (4,500 square feet) and tough to hit in regulation.
There are also water hazards on 11 of the 18 holes, so errant approach shots can be extremely costly. In 2025, 56% of approach shots at this event came from 150-225 yards, which is well above TOUR average. We can expect a lot of short and mid-iron approach shots this week.
The preferred course fit is straightforward this week. We are looking for precision off the tee and on approach. We are also looking for good bermudagrass putters and golfers who are capable around the green.
FedEx St. Jude Championship Predictions, Picks
While there are some standout outright values in the model this week, something tells me Scottie Scheffler is going to go on a huge run in these three playoff events.
I don't want to bet Scheffler at +480 this week, but I also don't feel good about anyone in the field beating him. He has five solo runner-up finishes since his last win. Due to that, I am looking at the Winner Without Scheffler market, and then the standard Top-10 and Top-20 markets.
The graphic below shows my model's odds, the current market odds, and the differences for the outright, Top-10, and Top-20 betting markets.
Collin Morikawa Winner W/Out Scheffler +2400 (DraftKings), Top 10 +250 (DraftKings), Top 20 +100 (DraftKings)
It's been a strange year for Collin Morikawa. He won the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am and was on pace to have a tremendous season before hurting his back at THE PLAYERS Championship. He hasn't played a ton of golf, but he still has three top 7 finishes in eight starts since his injury.
His recent ball striking is very encouraging, as he has gained 4.7, 10.5, and 5.3 strokes in his last three events (all of which were in elite fields). He's also gained over 15 strokes putting in his last five events. If the ball striking + putting combo continues, he's going to pick up a win sooner rather than later.
He's a near-perfect fit for TPC Southwind, as he's accurate off the tee and an elite iron player. I'm betting him in the Winner without Scheffler, Top-10, and Top-20 markets this week.
Russell Henley Winner W/Out Scheffler +3400 (DraftKings), Top 10 +340 (FanDuel), Top 20 +130 (FanDuel)
Russell Henley nearly won this event a few years ago, but his approach shot on one of the Par 3s on the back nine rolled back into a hole. He was unable to get it up and down, and then he collapsed over the final few holes. Since then, he's certainly turned into more of a big game hunter. He's won multiple times (including a Signature Event) and has contended at majors.
I'm always a Henley backer on courses that require accuracy, elite iron play, and good putting. That's been his recipe for quite some time now.
He rates out well in my Weighted Strokes Gained: Approach and Expected Hole Performance metrics for TPC Southwind, and he enters the week fresh off of 3 straight top-20 finishes.
I'm betting him in the Winner without Scheffler, Top-10, and Top-20 markets this week.
Scottie Scheffler Top 10 -180 (2 units at bet365)
I officially have this as a two-unit bet, but it might end up being my biggest golf bet of the year (in terms of dollars wagered). Scottie Scheffler is typically priced to a point where he doesn't offer any value, but his Top-10 number at -180 shows up as a positive value in my model this week.
Even before I get into his statistics, you could bet this solely on the fact that Scheffler has finished in the top 10 in 27 of his last 33 events on the tour.
At -180, we need Scheffler to finish in the top 10 64% of the time. In his last 33 events, Scheffler has finished in the top 10 82% of the time. And keep in mind, there are only 70 golfers in the field this week.
Scheffler is accurate off the tee, the best iron player in the world, an elite scrambler, and has become a very good putter. He's also finished third and fourth here the last two years.
Patrick Cantlay Top 10 +300 (FanDuel), Top 20 +115 (FanDuel)
I've fallen for the Patrick Cantlay trap too many times in the outright market, so I'm trying to learn from my mistakes. This week, I am betting him in the Top-10 and Top-20 markets.
We know his track record in the majors is lackluster, but his track record in the playoffs is otherworldly. Perhaps his game trends at this time each year, or perhaps he's motivated by the big purses. Either way, this is the time to get exposure to Cantlay.
Cantlay has had more missed cuts than usual this year, but he's still been a steady producer of high-end finishes. He's posted top 10 finishes in four of his last 11 starts, and he has eight top 20 finishes during that stretch. Right off the bat, his Top-10 and Top-20 odds seem very fair for this week.
Statistically, he's in a good place. He's gained at least four strokes ball striking in four of his last six starts. If that continues, it'll help him avoid the water hazards this week. He seems to like TPC Southwind, as he's finished T9, T12, and runner-up here in the last three years.
J.J. Spaun Top 20 +185 (FanDuel)
I'm not sure why the betting community frowns at golf bets that aren't +2000 or better. If we were to bet on a team to win a football, basketball, or baseball game at +185 and they won, we would consider that a great bet.
Don't be afraid to make golf bets that don't have huge odds. More often than not, they are actually more profitable. I digress.
J. J. Spaun is another elite ball striker who made my betting card this week. Over the last three months, he's top 10 in this field in Good Drive Percentage, Strokes Gained: Approach, and Weighted Strokes Gained: Approach.
The only thing holding him back has been the short game. While he can have some extremely poor weeks on and around the greens, that's why he's priced at +185 to finish in the top 20 of a 70-man field. He finished runner-up here last year, so he clearly likes the course.
