I've long complained that sportsbooks don't offer enough "downside" markets — players to not do something, alternate unders, that sort of thing.
Prediction markets offer both sides of every trade, so you can finally access markets like players to not score touchdowns, not win a golf tournament, teams to not win a championship.
I compared our Rotogrinders model projections to listed prices at Kalshi for this week's 2026 Genesis Invitational, and not surprisingly, there are 55 "no" edges (players to not win, or not finish in the top 20, etc.) before we get our first "yes" (players to win, finish in the top 20, etc.).
If you want to trade these yourself at Kalshi, you can sign up now in most states, and we have a Kalshi promo code to help you get started:
The Genesis Invitational is a smaller-field signature event with 72 players, but there is a cut. The top 50 players and ties, plus anyone within 10 strokes of the lead, will make the weekend.
Edge 1: Xander Schauffele
- Trade: Schauffele to not finish top 20
- Kalshi Price after fees: +113
- Edge: 16.1%
Schauffele's long-term form is great but our model is bearish on him in L.A. this week, and shows a ton of value on a not top 20, which you can get on Kalshi at about +113. He's been T19, T41, and missed cut in his first three starts this season.
Edge 2: Tony Finau
- Trade: Finau to not finish top 20
- Kalshi Price after fees: -360
- Edge: 16%
Finau had the best putting performance of his career last week in Shotlink-measured rounds, with 2.22 strokes gained on the greens, and still only finished 18th. Our model is not expecting him to repeat that. His entire game has fallen off in the last 18 months, going from a player consistently in the DataGolf top 20 to outside the top 100 now.
You'll have to lay around -360 to take Finau missing the top 20, but our model gives it just north of a 5% chance.
Edge 3: Scottie Scheffler
- Trade: Scheffler to not finish top 5
- Kalshi Price after fees: +110
- Edge: 13.6%
Scheffler looked pedestrian in Round 1 in each of the last two weekends, only to storm back and finish T3 at Pebble Beach and T4 in Phoenix (though he tied with five others, so you still would have made money on the same trade due to dead heat rules).
It's been nine tournaments since Scheffler finished fully outside the top 5, and almost a year since he finished fully outside the top 10. But with ties, there's just so little margin for error in an elite field, and our model likes him to finish outside the top 5.
Edge 4: Min Woo Lee
- Trade: Lee to not finish top 10
- Kalshi Price after fees: -425
- Edge: 15.0%
In an elite field, our model doesn't love Min Woo Lee. He had a historically-good putting week last week (much like Finau), his third-best on the PGA Tour in his career, en route to a T2 finish.
Lee's iron play has been below PGA Tour average for most of his career and a spike week with his irons also helped get him to T2 at Pebble Beach.
Other disagreements
The market is more bullish on Ryo Hisatsune, Sepp Straka, Collin Morikawa and Patrick Cantlay, which projects varying edges on all four to not finish in the top 20, top 10 and top 5.
