Do You Dare Fade Dustin Johnson in the U.S. Open?

Do You Dare Fade Dustin Johnson in the U.S. Open? article feature image

Joe Maiorana-USA TODAY Sports

For analysis of the top 85 golfers in the field, check out this page. “Best odds value” and “Best matchup value” listed below are determined by a proprietary model built by Colin Davy. It factors in the course, plus a variety of weighted metrics.

The Info: Dustin Johnson

DFS Pricing: $11,700 DraftKings, $12,400 FanDuel

U.S. Open History (2013-2017): 55, T-4, T-2, Won, MC

Odds: +900 to win, -135 top-10 finish, -275 top-20 finish, -1200 to make cut, +650 to miss cut

Best Odds Value: +900 to win

Best Matchup Value: Dustin Johnson (-155) over Rickie Fowler

Tee Times: 1:47 p.m. (Thursday); 8:02 a.m. (Friday)

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The Outlook

DJ is easily the scariest fade in the field this week. The U.S. Open is where he got his one-and-only major win of his career back in 2016, and he’s coming into the week in excellent form, winning the St. Jude Classic. He hasn’t been outside of the top 25 since last September, and he’s an ideal fit for this course. He’s first in Long-Term Adjusted Round Score, third in Recent Adjusted Round Score, and first in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green. Shinnecock is one of the toughest tests of a golfer’s all-around game, and when DJ is firing, he’s unbeatable. His odds are very inflated, but given his steadiness and ceiling, it might be OK to eat the chalk in this case.

The Metrics

Here’s how Johnson ranks in the U.S. Open field in several key metrics. For many more, be sure to check out the FantasyLabs PGA Models.

  • Long-Term Adjusted Round Score: 1st
  • Recent Adjusted Round Score: 3rd
  • Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green: 1st
  • Long-Term Driving Distance: 4th
  • Strokes Gained: Approach: 9th

Want more U.S. Open coverage? Check out this page for tips on the 85 best golfers in the field.

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