This week's John Deere Classic comes on the heels of a nail-biter of a Travelers Championship.
Taking place at TPC Deere Run in Silvis, IL, this Par-71 course will offer golfers a last-ditch effort for entry into The Open Championship.
Let's dive into our staff's John Deere Classic picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week.
First Round Leader Pick: Tom Kim (+5100)
By: Tony Sartori
No better way to kick off best bets than picking a first round leader. I'm looking at Tom Kim here, who fits this course nicely.
Entering this week, he ranks in the 87th percentile on the PGA Tour in strokes gained: approach and in the 94th percentile in strokes gained: approach from 100-150 yards. As noted, the ease of hitting greens turns this week into a putting contest.
Kim has proven capable on the greens, ranking in the top third of the PGA Tour in strokes gained: putting. He also enters in strong form, coming off his best finish of the year: a third-place showing at the U.S. Open against significantly tougher competition.
Outright Winner Pick: Aldrich Potgieter (+5700)
By: Jake Zach
Please don’t ask me why, but I feel good about this week. I smell a winner.
Potgieter is the pick this week, a boom-or-bust play with real upside.
He’s the longest hitter on Tour this season and sits fourth in SG: Off-the-Tee, so the raw talent and recent uptick in form are there: four straight cuts made with a pair of top-25s, plus a T35 while contending at the PGA Championship.
The catch is that TPC Deere Run has historically rewarded accuracy over power. Potgieter’s driving accuracy and approach play have lagged behind his distance numbers for most of the season.
If his ball-striking is on and he can find enough fairways to avoid the thick Bluegrass/Fescue rough, his length off the tee on the three reachable par-5s could be a real weapon this week.
Matchup Winner Pick: Blades Brown Over Aldrich Potgieter (+115)
By: Spencer Aguiar
I'll play contrarian for this pick.
Jake picked Potgieter to win outright, but I’m feeling different. In fact, I don’t even think he’ll win his matchup against 19-year-old sensation Blades Brown.
Allow me to explain.
I understand why Jake picked Potgieter here. There is recent form and there is something with his distance that could play here.
I have never been that high on him, since my model's always lower than the public consensus. But it’s burned me in the past.
We’ve seen consistent top-50 finishes out of Potgieter, which we don’t typically see out of him.
The safety in my model for Potgieter looks great, ranking top-20, and I don’t think that’s something we can overlook.
But a lot of core fits for this venue do get negated in a few ways, though. In TPC scoring, we have not seen him historically find success at these tracks, which is why he’s 103rd in my model.
Outright Winner Pick: Blades Brown (+6000)
By: Spencer Aguiar
I'm doubling down on the youngster.
For all the talk about Jackson Koivun making his PGA Tour professional debut, it's Brown who has gone under the radar.
Brown has been really good in action so far this season. I worry a little bit about the limited data and what that means for any of these markets, but back-to-back top-15 finishes, including at a similar birdie test when he took on the CJ Cup six weeks ago, should give some confidence that his fit for TPC Deere Run is higher than the market perceives it to be early in the week.
Brown's iron play graded fifth in this field over the small sample size of data that I do have for him, plus the birdie-making talent is very close to the top of the field.
Outright Winner Pick: Eric Cole (+3300)
By: Derek Farnsworth
Cole has been on my betting card a few times this season, and he's come so close to picking up his first win on Tour.
He finished runner-up at the Charles Schwab Challenge; he posted top 10s at the Memorial Tournament and the Myrtle Beach Classic, and he led last week's Travelers Championship for a significant amount of time in the first couple of rounds.
He's always been excellent on approach, around the green, and on the green, but the strides he has made with his driver have paid big dividends. He's one of the best birdie makers in the field, so +3300 feels more than fair.
