What an unbelievable Players Championship we had this past week. From Ludvig Aberg's meltdown, to Cam Young’s clutchness and everything in between.
This is why golf is the best sport in the world. The emotion, the suspense, the fact that one bad shot can cost a player everything.
Tournament of the year so far, if you ask me, and it's not even close. Massive congrats to Cameron Young on his second PGA Tour victory. We were right on it. I guess the “it’s coming soon” was “it's coming now.”
Onto The Valspar we go…
The Valspar Championship
The PGA Tour makes its final stop on the Florida swing this week for The Valspar Championship at Innisbrook’s Copperhead course. The field stays quite strong despite coming off two of the biggest events of the year (non-majors) in the Arnold Palmer Invitational and The Players Championship.
Seven of the world’s top 20 players are scheduled to compete, including Xander Schauffele, Viktor Hovland (defending champ), Justin Thomas (runner-up to Hovland last year), and Matt Fitzpatrick, coming off his runner-up at the Players Championship last week.
Innisbrook Resort (Copperhead)
Copperhead is by no means an easy track. In fact, the last three years has clearly shown it is not prone to producing birdie fests. Last year, Hovland won at 11 under, in 2024 Peter Malnati won at 12 under, and in 2023 Taylor Moore won at 10 under.
Taylor Moore noted, “this place is a ball-striker's paradise – fairway and green it to death.”
Off-The-Tee
With these narrow, pine-lined corridors, bomb and gouge is out the window here. Copperhead is defined by its tight doglegs, meaning success this week isn't just about distance, it's about angles. Players who fail to find the correct side of the fairway off the tee will find themselves having a harder time hitting greens. Precise positioning is the only way to effectively attack greens at this place.
Approach
Expect a long-iron clinic this week. With the bulk of approach shots coming from 175 yards and out, Copperhead ranks as the tenth toughest course on Tour to gain strokes on approach. And it makes sense, players are forced to club down to navigate these narrow fairways, leaving themselves mid-to-long irons into firm poa trivialis greens.
Around the Green / Putting
Around the green game and putting should be much easier than what we saw last week at TPC Sawgrass.
Jordan Spieth noted, “the greens are not very severe here. They can be quick in certain places where they put the pins, but they are not the type of greens where you worry too much about speed control. You can be aggressive putting here, which is nice."
Don’t get me wrong, being dialed with the flatstick is going to be massive this week. At a place like Copperhead, your ability to consistently scramble and save par is the difference between making the cut and heading home early. But let’s be honest, bogeys are inevitable here. It’s the nature of the beast. The goal isn't to play perfect golf; it's about having the short game to stabilize the round when the course starts biting back.
As per usual, my model is leaning heavily into recent form and elite ball-striking. Let’s dive into the players I’m backing this week.
All stats are from betspertsgolf.com
Brooks Koepka (+2700)
My first player here is Brooks Koepka. There is simply no denying Koepka is rounding into some nice form, gaining over eight strokes ball striking last week at the Players, and just under five in his prior start at PGA National. Since making the change to the Scotty Cameron Phantom 5.5 Mallet earlier in the year, it seems like Brooks is finding himself with the flatstick.
Granted he lost just over one stroke with the putter last week, he did gain just under three strokes at PGA National. Koepka thrives in these types of conditions, where scoring is difficult, and making par is a good score. He only has one start here, where he finished T12 in 2023. With a T13 and a T9 in his last two starts, I think a win is coming very soon for Koepka.
Corey Conners (+3200)
After an overall slow start to the year, Corey Conners has been starting to find himself. I was following his round quite closely last week at The Players, and by no surprise, he was ball-striking it beautifully, gaining just under nine strokes in that category.
It's always the same theme with Conners. His ball-striking will be dialed, but what what will we get from him on the greens? Given Conners has gained with the flatstick in two of his last three starts, and the putting at Copperhead is not too severe, I believe this is a prime week for the Canadian to get his third win on the PGA Tour.
Conners plays the comp courses to Copperhead very solid as well, think the likes of TPC Sawgrass, Harbourtown, Colonial, Sedgefield, and TPC San Antonio. Not to mention, one that he's won at in TPC San Antonio.
All tracks that favor elite ball strikers. In his three starts at Copperhead, Conners has finished T8, T21, and T16. I saw a different motor from Conners this past week at Sawgrass and believe he brings that same motor over to the Tampa area this week.
Sahith Theegala (+3700)
I really like the stat profile Sahith Theegala has shown in 2026.
Three T10s, ball striking it well, and putting it beautifully. When pricing came out, I thought for sure Theegala was going to be lumped in the 20 range with Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, and others. I believe this price on Theegala is simply way too long for how good he's been playing.
I was a bit hesitant with Theegala at Copperhead given how much it asks for a player off-the-tee. However, after seeing what he's done in that category in his last four starts, it instantly made me pull the trigger at 37/1.
Even if Theegala just goes neutral off-the-tee, I believe his approach play and putting can easily earn him his second victory on Tour. And he has a lot to show for it there, gaining on approach in five of his last eight, and gaining with the flatstick in six of his last eight starts. Not to mention, Theegala finished T7 here back in 2022.
I liked the Pepperdine alum last week, and there's no reason why we shouldn't be right back on him this week on the west coast of Florida.
Valspar Championship Kalshi Odds
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