The last PGA Tour event is upon us before the FedExCup Playoffs start in one week.
Players are jockeying for position down the stretch, although I do want to note that what someone needs is probably overcorrected in the market. If players could turn it on whenever they saw fit, they likely wouldn't be in this spot. Just something to keep in mind if you are backing someone solely because of "needing a result."
Let's dive into my Wyndham Championship picks and PGA Tour best bets for this week's event.
Wyndham Championship Outright Picks
Jackson Koivun 20/1
There is a bit of an "unknown" variable that Jackson Koivun brings to the mix early in his career. Unknown doesn't mean that we don't know who he is as a golfer. I can tell you right now that he is one of the top amateurs ever and looks like a true threat to be world number one at some point in his career. However, the unknown to me means that this hodgepodge of data only tells part of the story until we get a larger sample size to pull from weekly.
From a pure raw data return, Koivun looks as if he is the Scottie Scheffler of this field. That doesn't mean his data is quite as good against baseline expectations when we extrapolate the metrics. Still, the overarching theme of that answer is that Koivun's limited retrieval is showing up as the best player in this field.
Where that goes over the next six months is the unknown variable that will show him to be either a 10/1 option or a 30-40/1 name weekly. I am going to bet on the first option and say he is the real deal, who draws a perfect course for his game to win two times early in his career.
Ryan Gerard 32/1
Sedgefield Country Club has some of the highest rollover predictability of any course on tour. Essentially, players who play well at this venue tend to continue that trend over time. The reverse is also true for those who struggle.
Gerard fits into the second portion of that bucket of someone who has yet to really find his footing at the course early in his career. Back-to-back missed-cut showings in 2025 and 2023 aren't exactly what you would want to see (I have my own concerns), but I am willing to take a shot on a golfer playing some of the best golf of anyone in this field.
Gerard's Bermuda short-game splits have been the problem. He ranks outside the top 90 of this field in all critical areas, including Bermuda putting, three-putt avoidance on similar greens, and short-game Bermuda returns. If this becomes version number three of disappointment, I would bet we end up pointing in that direction, but the more impactful sentiment is that winning a golf tournament doesn't matter if you are second or last. Winning a golf tournament only cares if you can find upside.
His past failures pushed this number into a range where I am willing to gamble to find out if the new Gerard can handle Sedgefield.
Ben Griffin 35/1
Where would this number have opened if Ben Griffin had found a top-10 showing last week at the Rocket Classic? I believe we would be looking at someone in the low 20/1 range.
I always talk about how past expectations at a venue shape current projections, since it means a lot more to me when someone performs admirably in the prior year while being ranked well on the sheet. It means a lot less when they perform well with that high ranking but bring a poor rating with them to the current event. Think Cam Davis at the Rocket Classic last week. Adam Svensson at the 3M. The options for names the public backs in their inferior form because of past results are endless. That is not what the Griffin situation is currently, despite the questionable form.
My model ranked Griffin as a top-five win equity option on the board. The comp splits held firm over the last 18 months, and his current form is better than it may appear.
Lee Hodges 150/1
There has been no sharper mover in the market than Lee Hodges over the past 24 hours.
My model has a high-end data return that loves his upside (you can see that with his 12th-place rank).
Taking some shots on him in upside markets feels like the way to go, whether that ends up being as a top-10, 20 or outright.
Wyndham Championship Matchup Pick
No Matchup This Week
