Preakness Stakes Exotic Betting Picks, Odds, Predictions: Exacta, Trifecta & Pick 4 Wagers (Saturday, May 15)
Rob Carr/Getty Images. Pictured: Preakness Stakes contender Crowded Trade.
- Exacta? Trifecta? How about a juicy Pick 4 ticket?
- Jeremy Pond delivers his top exotic wagers for Saturday's Preakness Stakes, highlighted by an intriguing late Pick 4 ticket.
- Check out all his plays, including multiple selections for the second jewel of horse racing's Triple Crown.
Well, we’re finally here. The day has arrived where I can hopefully get my revenge after losing a large futures wager on Mandaloun two weeks ago in the Kentucky Derby.
The 147th running of the annual “Run for the Roses” is going to sit poorly for a long time with me, as well as several of my colleagues who lost even more in the race under extremely unfortunate circumstances.
The good thing, though, is there’s always the opportunity to make up for losses and sometimes even profit more in the long run in sports betting, so I’m hopeful that will be the case in Saturday’s Preakness Stakes in Baltimore.
I’ve landed on No. 5 Midnight Bourbon as my top pick. I love the way he finished the Derby after losing any chance of winning after getting knocked around at the start. And getting three-time reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz Jr. in the saddle has me even more cautiously optimistic.
Trainer Bob Baffert is going to have a say in the outcome of this race one way or another. However, the problem isn’t going to be No. 3 Medina Spirit in the second jewel of the Triple Crown the way I see this race going.
See, the Derby winner won’t be alone on the lead this time around. Without question, he will have multiple foes either even or in front of him once they hit the clubhouse the way I see forecast this 1 3/16-mile event panning out.
And that’s trouble for Medina Spirit, due to the fact he can’t and doesn’t want to pass other horses. Don’t believe me? Go back and watch the Santa Anita Derby, San Felipe Stakes and Sham Stakes. All second-place efforts and never threatened the front runner.
However, despite this major fade on Medina Spirit, I have big concerns with the other Baffert entrant. That would be No. 10 Concert Tour, who comes in fresh off a disappointing third-place effort in the Arkansas Derby. Bottom line, this is a serious player and will likely be an issue in the 10-horse field.
Let’s take a quick look at how I’m playing the Preakness from a betting perspective, including my Win-Place-Show and exacta/trifecta wagering. I’ve also added a nice Pick 4 ticket involving the four final races on the card.
Preakness Stakes Bets
As I detailed in depth in our main betting story, I am backing Midnight Bourbon to get the job done in this 10-horse field. Thankfully, I placed a wager on trainer Steve Asmussen’s horse the day the post positions came out and was able to get the son of Tiznow at 5-1 odds.
Since the draw, early wagering has shifted the market quite a bit, with Midnight Bourbon now the current 5-2 favorite. Medina Spirit fell from 9-5 odds to 3-1 at the start of betting, with Concert Tour drifting up to 4-1 odds to close out the top choices.
I expect these numbers to correct themselves once more action is taken on the Preakness, with Concert Tour being my projected favorite when they reach the starting gate at Pimlico.
So, as you’ve likely gathered, I am playing Midnight Bourbon across the board in my Win-Place-Show wagering. I will also bet No. 4 Crowded Trade — my live longshot — for Place and Show as well.
When it comes to my exacta, I’m using Crowded Trade, Midnight Bourbon and Concert Tour on top. Then, I will throw No. 2 Keepmeinmind, Medina Spirit and No. 6 Rombauer underneath. This way, I’ve got everything covered. I have my top pick, live longshot and the Baffert horse I think will cause the most problems hooked up with others who could be in the mix for the minor awards.
When it comes to my trifecta, I’m keeping it simple and boxing up six horses. We’ll go with Keepmeinind, Medina Spirit, Crowded Trade, Midnight Bourbon, Rombauer and Concert Tour. I feel like this gives me a lot of balance with three favored horses mixed with three horses who could go off at double-digit odds.
As for my late Pick 4 ticket, I’ve tried to not go too crazy when it comes to the amount wagered. However, if I do well on my plays leading up to race No. 10 and the start of the wager, I will probably tack on an extra horse here and there to spice things up a little more.
I’m kicking things off in the 10th race with the four horses I mentioned as part of my top betting opportunity on the undercard, which you can read about in the story links above. I’m using No. 4 The Critical Way, No. 5 Hollis, No. 11 Firecrow and No. 13 Completed Pass on my ticket.
In the second leg, I am going with No. 5 Strike Power, No. 7 Breezy Gust, No. 8 Special Reserve and No. 11 Seven Nation Army in another wide-open contest. The third leg on the ticket could actually be the race you single a horse via No. 5 Sacred Life, who is one of my best bets on the card. I’ve added a little coverage with No. 1 Somelikeithotbrown, keeping it at two contenders.
Finally, I close things out with five horses in the Preakness, thus giving myself an array of horses to be a live to if I get this far. I will be using Keemeinmind, Crowded Trade, Midnight Bourbon, Rombauer and Concert Tour to close out the selections.
My Preakness Stakes Bets
$20 Win | Place | Show: No. 5 Midnight Bourbon (5-2)
$10 Place | Show: No. 4 Crowded Table (7-1)
$4 Exacta: 4-5-10 over 2-3-4-5-6-10
$1 Trifecta Box (play for $0.50 for a smaller investment): 2-3-4-5-6-10
Pick 4 (Races 10-11-12-13)
Wager: $0.50 for an $80 total investment
Race 10: 4-5-11-13
Race 11: 5-7-8-11
Race 12: 1-5
Race 13: 2-4-5-6-10