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2023 Kentucky Derby Day Betting Predictions: Experts Like These 4 Longshots

2023 Kentucky Derby Day Betting Predictions: Experts Like These 4 Longshots article feature image

Pictured: Matareya with Flavien Prat riding. (Photo by Horsephotos/Getty Images)

The 2023 Kentucky Derby is the first leg of the Triple Crown, but it’s only one of the 14 races that will be run at Churchill Downs this Saturday.

With 13 others on the board, horse-racing experts Mike Conti and Mike Somich made their betting predictions for the 2023 Kentucky Derby race day on The Action Network Podcast, featuring four bets to win and recommendations for Pick 5s. We transcribed those Kentucky Derby betting predictions below.

Note: Transcriptions edited for clarity.

2023 Kentucky Derby Day Betting Predictions

Race 4 Predictions

Winner: No. 5 Matareya

Somich: Matareya was as good as No. 2 Goodnight Olive (4-5) last year, then took a big time break. Now we get [Matareya’s] second race off the layoff — second out as a four-year-old — and I believe she’s sitting on a very big race.

Race 8 Predictions

Winner: No. 7 Fort Bragg (9-2)

If you go back and watch the Florida Derby, Fort Bragg broke out of the 10 post and broke so bad that she ended up crossing in between the No. 6 and 7 to go grab the lead: She never had a prayer to hold on in that race.

Fort Bragg is a better one-turn horse than a two-turn horse, and we’re getting 9-2 in a salty race, so I’m willing to take a shot there.

Race 9 Predictions

Winner: No. 4 Talk of the Nation (10-1)

Conti: There are two horses I’m very interested in, one of them is in a wide-open race: Race 9, the American Turf. I really like No. 4 Talk of the Nation.

You could make a case to hit all in this race: it’s a really, really challenging race

Talk of the Nation is a really interesting horse at a big price and one I will be including and probably even be making a win bet on. Since they’ve turned this horse over to the turf course, we’ve seen a new horse: 2-for-2 over the turf.

Pick 5 Options

Somich: There are two other longshots we should take a look at, including in Pick 5 tickets — No. 3 Mendelssohns March (12-1) and No. 5 Johannes (15-1).

Johannes is likely going to be a lone leader and loose on the lead while Mendelssohns March is a turf horse who’s been running on the dirt and we’re back to the turf for this one.

Race 11 Predictions

Winner: No. 5 Up To The Mark (4-1)

Conti: This horse had a tough time last time out, but there was no pace in that Maker’s Mark Mile race, and the horse still was closing.

There definitely is more pace signed on in this race. At 4-1, talk about backing the Brink’s truck up.

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