Bettors should stay away from picking nine horses to contend in Saturday's Kentucky Derby, according to Action's top horse racing experts.
Sharp bettors Mike Conti and Sean Zerillo are your go-to sources for betting predictions and insights for this weekend's races – the Kentucky Oaks Friday, Kentucky Derby Saturday, and the lower-profile, undercard races.
Conti and Zerillo profiled why certain horses don't stand a chance in the Kentucky Derby, due to pricing, trends and more in the Action Network podcast.
Buyer beware if you're locking in these Kentucky Derby picks on Saturday.
Kentucky Derby Odds for Saturday
| Post | Horse | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Citizen Bull | 20-1 |
| 2 | Neoequos | 50-1 |
| 3 | Final Gambit | 30-1 |
| 5 | American Promise | 30-1 |
| 6 | Admire Daytona | 30-1 |
| 7 | Luxor Cafe | 10-1 |
| 8 | Journalism | 3-1 |
| 9 | Burnham Square | 8-1 |
| 11 | Flying Mohawk | 36-1 |
| 12 | East Avenue | 35-1 |
| 13 | Publisher | 20-1 |
| 14 | Tiztastic | 15-1 |
| 15 | Render Judgment | 50-1 |
| 16 | Coal Battle | 30-1 |
| 17 | Sandman | 5-1 |
| 18 | Sovereignty | 9-2 |
| 19 | Chunk of Gold | 20-1 |
| 20 | Owen Almighty | 50-1 |
| 21 | Baeza | 50-1 |
Odds via TwinSpires as of Friday morning. Use our TwinSpires promo code ACTIONRACING to get a $400 Sign Up Offer!
Conti was quick to cross off Publisher, trained by Steve Asmussen.
"Asmussen has never won the Derby," noted Conti. "He's obviously an amazing trainer, a Hall of Famer, so you can't knock a Steve Asmussen horse. What I really don't like, and it's crazy to say, is Irad Ortiz Jr. is on this horse, and he doesn't ride for Asmussen a ton."
Publisher is a 3-year-old colt sired by American Pharoah. He has performed well over seven career races, with five top-three finishes across seven starts.
However, Publisher has yet to break through with a win, a trend that doesn't bode well historically.
You want to come into the biggest race, the deepest field that he's ever going to run, in a 20-horse field, and all of a sudden break your maiden? It's legitimately never happened in the history of the Kentucky Derby. Automatic toss from my end.
"Other horses that I'm tossing are Flying Mohawk, East Avenue, Render Judgment, Owen Almighty, Citizen Bull and Admire Daytona" Conti added.
Zerillo, meanwhile, highlighted several horses that won't make his card due to pricing and how certain horses are faring in prep for the Derby.
"I do not like the number 14 Tiztastic," he said. "He's been very lazy working this week leading up to the race."
"Number 1 Citizen Bull, Number 2 Neoequos, Number 5 American Promise, Number 15 Render Judgment, Number 16 Coal Battle, and Number 20 Owen Almighty – those are all cuts for me," added Zerillo.
The only disagreement from that list from Conti was Number 2, Neoequos.
"You get arguably the best jockey in the world in Flavien Prat. The only thing that I would say for everybody to be aware of is that Flavien has already said that if the 21 Baeza draws into the field, he's going to that horse. So what does that tell you about his confidence level on Number 2 Neoequos?
"But again, a horse that I do like to think about in exotics that I wouldn't immediately toss."
Still, bettors can trim roughly half the Kentucky Derby field down using these insights. Stay tuned for more Action Network horse racing picks and coverage throughout the weekend.
Kentucky Derby Picks: Experts' Top Horses to Avoid
- Citizen Bull
- American Promise
- Flying Mohawk
- East Avenue
- Publisher
- Tiztastic
- Render Judgment
- Coal Battle
- Owen Almighty
