Hopefully the weather holds up, but it looks like there could be rain in Louisville for Oaks Day. So I’m going to give you picks for both possible weather situations. Horses run completely differently on wet surfaces and dry surfaces. Ever see the Seinfeld episode? Well, it’s true!

Below are my picks for all the stakes races on Friday. Break out your pink for Oaks Day!


Race 5: The Eight Belles

The No. 3 horse, Mia Mischief (+250), has been no secret at the window in her six career starts. She showed the ability to rate last time. Chalk wins the first stakes race of the day. (Mia Mischief might be better on a wet track, so my mind won’t change if it rains.)

Pick: Mia Mischief to win


Race 6

The aggressive morning line on the No. 3 horse, Abel Tasman, is probably legitimate considering her resume, which includes winning the Oaks last year. But this is a pass for me because I don’t think there’s value in any of the lines.

Access Premium Insights

Unlock this article and get unlimited access to all of the data-driven analysis from the sharpest minds in sports betting and daily fantasy sports.

Start Your Free TrialAlready a Sports Action member? Sign in