National Lacrosse League Betting Picks: NLL Week 7 Best Bets for Friday

This weekend in the National Lacrosse League features the biggest slate of the season, with all 15 teams in action. NLL Week 7 starts with two games Friday night, and I have three bets to kick off the weekend. Let’s dive into the side and two props I’m betting.

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Halifax Thunderbirds vs. Toronto Rock

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The Halifax Thunderbirds enter Friday night as 1.5-point underdogs, looking to snap a two-game losing streak. They host a 3-0 Toronto team that is currently the favorite to win the 2024 NLL Championship.

When this game opened on Caesars, you could bet Halifax +1.5 at +105 and on the moneyline at +150. There’s only been a minor shift with the price now -105 to bet Thunderbirds +1.5 and +145 to win straight-up. I won’t fault anyone for backing Halifax at home in a bounce-back spot, but I still think Toronto is the superior team. Halifax is going to get back on track soon, but I’m not sure if it will be this week.

Instead, I’m targeting Halifax forward Ryan Benesch’s goals prop of 2.5. Despite being just a few weeks from turning 39-years-old, Benesch is playing at an elite level, leading the Thunderbirds with 21 points through four games. Yet, his six-goal performance against the Philadelphia Wings has inflated his goals prop. Benesch has three or more goals in just six of his last 23 games and has failed to surpass two goals in his last three games against Toronto. The Rock boast one of the best defenses in the league, holding opponents to a shooting percentage of just 14.4%, which ranks second best according to LaxMetrics. They also rank first in goals allowed average, holding opponents to just 8.33 goals per game.

At -115 on bet365, there’s a ton of value in fading Benesch as a goal-scorer against Nick Rose and this vaunted Toronto defense. Bet Benesch to stay under 2.5 goals on Friday night.

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Pick: Ryan Benesch Under 2.5 Goals

Las Vegas Desert Dogs vs. San Diego Seals

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The latter game Friday features the Las Vegas Desert Dogs hosting the San Diego Seals. The Seals are 3.5-point favorites in their first of two games on the weekend, but I don’t expect coach Patrick Merrill and Co. to overlook the Desert Dogs.

San Diego’s offense has looked great through three games, ranking third in offensive rating, and could get sharpshooter Mac O’Keefe back for Friday’s game. They’ll face a Las Vegas defense that is third worst in shots defended and has allowed the most goals per game with an average of 14.

The Las Vegas offense hasn’t performed any better, ranking third worst in offensive rating and last in goals with just 37 through four games. On the flip side, San Diego is middle of the pack in shots defended, but has allowed a modest 11.67 goals per game. Furthermore, Seals netminder Christopher Origlieri is top five in one-on-one save percentage, despite facing three high-powered offenses in Calgary, Buffalo and Rochester. Origlieri and the Seals defense should have little trouble stopping Las Vegas.

While they’re becoming a bit more common, 3.5-point spreads are rare in the NLL. Yet, this game warrants this large of a spread and San Diego should still be able to cover easily. They’ll get Las Vegas’ best effort, but San Diego’s balance on both ends of the floor and X-Factor at the face-off in Trevor Baptiste should allow them to build and maintain a lead against the Desert Dogs on Friday. Bet San Diego to cover the 3.5-point spread at +100 on FanDuel.

I also recommend betting San Diego forward Austin Staats to have a big game. Staats has recorded a hat trick or better in 11 of his last 22 games and netted three or more in two of three games against Las Vegas last year. Staats won his one-on-one matchups against Rochester in their last game and should fare just as well against this Desert Dogs defense.

Bet Staats to surpass 2.5 goals (-140 on bet365) in Las Vegas.

Picks: San Diego Seals -3.5 | Austin Staats Over 2.5 Goals