NCAA Men’s Lacrosse Betting Odds & Picks: Best Bets for College Lacrosse Week 6

We’re back with another college lacrosse betting preview, and while last week featured plenty of ranked meetings, this week I’m targeting a few mid-major games along with some marquee matchups. Let’s dive into the three spreads and a total I’m targeting Saturday.

If you’re an avid bettor who’s new to lacrosse or a lacrosse fan who’s new to betting, check out my guide on how to bet on lacrosse for some tips to use when placing a lacrosse bet.

Sacred Heart vs. Manhattan

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

We start in the MAAC this week with a matchup between unranked Sacred Heart and Manhattan. Sacred Heart opened as a slight favorite at -120 on the moneyline and has since moved all the way to -166. Yet, I think there is still value on betting them to cover the -1.5.

The Pioneers edge Manhattan in all three main metrics that I look at: adjusted offensive efficiency, adjusted defensive efficiency and adjusted faceoff percentage. Excluding garbage time, Sacred Heart ranks 32nd in adjusted offensive efficiency to Manhattan’s 39th, and 17th in adjusted defensive efficiency to the Jaspers’ 45th, according to Lacrosse Reference.

Additionally, Sacred Heart has won three of its last five and its two losses saw it post an adjusted faceoff percentage of less than 26%. In those three wins, they’ve had an adjusted faceoff percentage of 44.7% or higher, and I expect their 38th-ranked unit to win around 60% against Manhattan’s 74th-ranked unit.

Last season, Sacred Heart squeaked out a 9-7 win, but I think this is a much bigger mismatch than last season. Bet Sacred Heart -1.5 at -115 on BetMGM or DraftKings.

Pick: Sacred Heart -1.5

UMBC vs. Bryant

Odds via BetMGM Sportsbook

In another mid-major matchup, UMBC hosts Bryant. The Bulldogs opened as 3.5-point favorites and are now no shorter than -4.5. Yet, I still think Bryant has a sizable edge in its meeting with the Retrievers.

Bryant’s biggest edge is at faceoff, where it ranks first in adjusted faceoff percentage during competitive situations at 70.1%. The Bulldogs are moderately efficient on offense, ranking 31st, according to Lacrosse Reference, but should be able to easily wear down this 51st-ranked UMBC defense. During UMBC’s likely disproportionately low amount of offensive possessions, their 43rd-ranked offense will face the 16th-most efficient defense in Division I. 

UMBC’s lone win this season was against Mount St. Mary’s when it faced off at 63%; and in its two most recent losses, it faced off at lower than 39% and lost by an average margin of 9.5 goals. Last year, UMBC managed to keep it somewhat close in a 17-13 loss, but Bryant dominated in most categories and was let down by Teagan Alexander’s 31.6% save percentage. If he can stop even just half the shots he faces Saturday, Bryant should cruise to an easy win.

Bet Bryant to easily cover -4.5 at -115 on BetMGM or DraftKings.

Pick: Bryant -4.5

No. 17 Richmond vs. No. 4 Duke

Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook

If you made it past the two mid-major matchups, your reward is one of my favorite spots of the weekend in a game between two ranked opponents in Richmond and Duke. The Blue Devils are currently a 5-point road favorite, but that spread is too high.

I’m super high on Richmond this season and think it has first-round upset potential in the NCAA Tournament. While we’re going to just bet them to cover the 5-point spread Saturday, I wouldn’t be shocked if they pull off the outright upset.

The Spiders are 6-1 against the spread with their only ATS loss by a goal after their line moved from -9 to -10 prior to their 19-10 win over Binghamton. Richmond already has two quality games against ranked teams this season, losing to No. 5 Maryland by a goal in overtime and No. 3 Virginia by just four goals. Now, it faces a Duke team that is coming off a 21-6 mid-week win over Providence and has an ACC matchup with Syracuse on Wednesday.

The advanced metrics bolster the case for Richmond. The Spiders currently rank first in adjusted defensive efficiency and are the only Division I team holding opponents to lower than 20%. Richmond also ranks ninth in adjusted offensive efficiency and its adjusted faceoff percentage is 29th, according to Lacrosse Reference.

Duke is currently top 10 in adjusted offensive efficiency (second) and adjusted defensive efficiency (sixth) as well, but the gap is not as big as this spread indicates. The Blue Devils will have a slight edge at faceoff thanks to their 15th-ranked adjusted faceoff percentage, but Richmond allows the fourth-fewest shots per possession at 0.87 and should fare fine even if it manages to go below 50% in faceoffs.

Bet Richmond to cover the 5-point spread (-120 on DraftKings) in what should be a close game.

Pick: Richmond +5

No. 2 Notre Dame vs. No. 18 Michigan

Odds via FanDuel

The final matchup I’m targeting is the game between Notre Dame and Michigan. Despite this game featuring two efficient offenses, I’m betting Under 26.5.

During competitive situations, Notre Dame and Michigan are 16th and 17th, respectively, in adjusted offensive efficiency. Yet, both play at a slow pace, with the Wolverines ranking 47th in pace and the Irish 71st. Additionally, both defenses rank in the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency during competitive situations, with Notre Dame at ninth and Michigan at 19th, according to Lacrosse Reference.

Furthermore, Michigan and Notre Dame are third and sixth, respectively, in adjusted faceoff percentage, so neither team should be able to dictate the tempo and possessions should be valued by both. Even if Notre Dame is able to build a sizable lead, its pace increases very minimally with a lead.

Bet this total to stay well under 26.5 at -105 on FanDuel.

Pick: Under 26.5

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