Friday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Mets-Yankees, 2 Other Games
Andy Marlin-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Noah Syndergaard
- After a disappointing first half, sharp bettors are eyeing big second half regression.
- The public is hammering three unders tonight, creating rare contrarian over value for professional players
- Wiseguys are also taking a shot on the worst MLB team at home tonight.
The All-Star break has come and gone. After having a chance to rest, rejuvenate and reflect on how the first half went, MLB wiseguys are locked and loaded for the second half of the season.
After analyzing Friday’s 15-game MLB slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed four MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m. and 8:15 p.m. ET.
>> All odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET. Download The Action Network App to get real-time MLB odds and track your bets
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay the sportsbook in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettors would have to wager $115 to win $100.
New York Mets at New York Yankees
- Sharp angle: Over 8.5
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
In the Subway Series opener, Average Joes see Noah Syndergaard (2.97 ERA) toeing the rubber and automatically expect a low-scoring game. But once again, when the public zigs, the sharps zag. Currently, 69% of bets are on the under, yet 57% of dollars are on the over. Despite the heavy under betting, the total has remained frozen at 8.5, and the juice has trended toward the over (now 8.5 -119).
This means the total may even rise to 9. Pro players at GTBets, CRIS and YouWager all got down hard on the over, triggering a trio of steam and reverse line moves.
>> Follow Josh Appelbaum in The Action Network App to get free alerts on all his MLB bets.
Atlanta Braves at Washington Nationals
- Sharp angle: Over 8
- First pitch 7:05 p.m. ET
Another contrarian over opportunity for sharp bettors. With Stephen Strasburg coming off the DL, nearly 60% of bets are going under. However, the over is getting nearly 80% of dollars. After opening at 8 over -105, the juice has moved to 8 over -108.
So even though the public is pounding the under, the liability is clearly on the over. Pros at Pinnacle triggered a pair of steam and reverse line moves on the over 8. This is especially notable considering Pinnacle is the sharpest offshore book with the highest percentage of pro players.
Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Stephen Strasburg
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
- Sharp angles: Royals +113, Over 8.5
- 8:15 p.m. ET
Wiseguys have taken a side on both the moneyline and the total in this AL Central battle. The Royals are getting only 31% of bets but 49% of dollars and have moved from +114 to +113 since opening. This profitable bets-vs.-dollars split and sharp line freeze/reverse line movement is clear evidence that the pros are buying low on the home divisional dog.
Sharps at BetOnline, Bovada and SIA all hammered KC, triggering three separate steam and reverse line moves with no conflicting plays on the Twins.
In terms of the total, currently 80% of bets are on the under, creating another contrarian over opportunity for wiseguys. Heavy public betting caused the books to drop the total from 9 to 8.5. That’s when sharps pounced, hammering the over 8.5 at Buckeye, GTBets and CRIS.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
Looking for more in-depth betting analysis? Sign up for a Sports Insights Pro trial and join our Live Betting Hangouts where we break down the board every weeknight from 6:30-7 p.m. ET.