NFL Sunday Week 1 has finally arrived, and while most of the sports world has eyes locked on the gridiron today, baseball fans still have a packed 15-game MLB slate on deck.
From early-afternoon matinees to the Sunday Night Baseball game on the West Coast, value remains across the board.
Check out our 4 MLB Best Bets Today, featuring picks for Braves vs. Phillies, Royals vs. Red Sox, and Padres vs. Giants on Sunday, September 13.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article and be sure to download the Action Network app for more picks and analysis.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:10 PM | |
  | 1:35 PM | |
  | 3:05 PM | |
  | 7:20 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
System-Based Rockies vs Tigers Bet
By Action Network Staff
Right-hander Gabriel Hughes takes the mound for Colorado still searching for his first major league win (0-7, 5.81 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 48 strikeouts). However, Hughes has shown distinct improvement recently, posting a 1.86 ERA across two September starts.
Detroit counters with young starter Jackson Jobe (1-2, 4.45 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 26 strikeouts).
The best play for Sunday's matinee matchup is Under 8.5 runs. This selection relies heavily on the "Sunday Unders on Over Streak" betting system established by analyst Evan Abrams.
The strategy specifically identifies Sunday MLB contests where the home team is coming off consecutive high-scoring games that cash the Over. The core theory points out that Sunday day games—frequently trailing night games—present prime conditions for offensive regression.
Gabriel Hughes has quietly found his rhythm this month with a sub-2.00 ERA, while Detroit's Jackson Jobe presents solid overall stuff capable of keeping Colorado's road-weary bats in check.
Expect early-afternoon fatigue, line rotation, and recent pitching improvements to limit run production, keeping the total safely under 8.5 runs.
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Pick: Under 8.5 (-100 or Better)
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Ryan Minion's Phillies vs Braves Best Bets
By Ryan Minion
Rookie pitcher Andrew Painter will take the mound for the Phillies, looking to bounce back from what has been a rough season, while Grant Holmes gets the start for the Braves.
Painter has recorded a whopping 5.71 ERA throughout his 110.1 innings, and I expect his struggles to continue as he prepares to face a scorching-hot Braves lineup on Sunday afternoon.
Acuña has historically been one of the premier fastball hitters, using his explosive wrist action to turn around high-velocity offerings.
He also boasts elite plate discipline, evident through his .345 OBP on the season, and will gladly take a walk if Painter is missing his spots.
The Phillies’ right-hander has frequently fallen behind in counts all year long, resulting in his having to throw strikes in the zone, which could definitely prove fatal against a power-hitter like Acuña.
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Pick: Braves -1.5 (+155), Ronald Acuna Over 1.5 HRR (-138) and Over 1.5 Total Bases (+110)
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Sean Paul's Royals vs Red Sox Prop Pick
By Sean Paul
Numbers don’t lie, and those numbers show that Red Sox left-hander Payton Tolle is a vastly different pitcher when he has more than five days of rest.
Tolle has gone seven days between starts four times this year, including in his last outing when he struck out 12 against the Orioles. He also had starts against the A's and Orioles (again) where he tallied nine and seven strikeouts, respectively.
Diving deeper, Tolle ranks in the 95th percentile in chase rate, 70th in whiff rate, and 89th in strikeout rate. He also has stronger velocity with more rest, which bodes well for his performance in this outing against Kansas City.
Now, Tolle will have to find his lanes for strikeouts, as the Royals own an 18% strikeout rate since August 1st. The highest strikeout rate on the roster in that span is Tyler Tolbert at 25%, and five others punch out 20-23% of the time.
Tolle's strikeout line is 6.5, which is a fair line since he's posted 7+ strikeouts in four of his last eight outings. To me, the difference is the extra rest from Tolle, which should give him the extra zip on his four-seamer to keep Kansas City hitters off balance.
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Pick: Payton Tolle Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+110 or Better)
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Action PRO's Padres vs Giants Projection
By Action PRO
Fernando Tatis Jr. has put together an electric season, posting a .286 batting average with 21 home runs, 60 walks, and 73 RBIs for the Padres.
He enters Sunday's matchup red-hot at the plate, having cleared over 1.5 hits in three of his past five games—including a multi-hit performance featuring a solo home run in Saturday's victory over San Francisco.
Action PRO projections align with his current hot streak against Logan Webb, projecting Tatis for 1.53 total hits on Sunday.
That projection provides a solid 10% edge against the betting market line of over/under 1.5 hits, creating strong analytical value to back Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits at plus-money (+186) as the top statistical play for the series finale.
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Pick: Fernando Tatis Jr. Over 1.5 Hits (+186)
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