The New York Yankees host the Chicago White Sox on September 23, 2025. First pitch from Yankee Stadium is scheduled for 7:05 p.m. EDT; the game will be broadcast on YES.
Find my MLB betting preview and White Sox vs Yankees prediction below, as well as probable pitchers, betting trends, injury reports and more.
My White Sox vs Yankees Prediction
- White Sox vs Yankees picks: White Sox ML
My White Sox vs Yankees best bet is on Chicago to win outright. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live MLB odds page.
White Sox vs Yankees Odds
| White Sox Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -105 | 9 100o / -120u | +190 |
| Yankees Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -115 | 9 100o / -120u | -230 |
White Sox vs Yankees Projected Starting Pitchers
| RHP Shane Smith (CHW) | Stat | RHP Luis Gil (NYY) |
|---|---|---|
| 6-8 | W-L | 4-1 |
| 1.7 | fWAR (FanGraphs) | 0.8 |
| 4.06/4.22 | ERA /xERA | 3.33/5.10 |
| 4.34/4.38 | FIP / xFIP | 4.10/5.54 |
| 1.22 | WHIP | 1.50 |
| 13.1% | K-BB% | 3.5% |
| 40.4% | GB% | 29.6% |
| 95 | Stuff+ | 101 |
| 98 | Location+ | 93 |
Sean Zerillo’s White Sox vs Yankees Prediction, Betting Analysis
Shane Smith has ended up being the White Sox’s best pitcher this season. Projections still see him more as a No. 4 starter, but when you compare Smith to Luis Gil, they’re very similar. Gil’s average FIP projection is 4.3, while Smith’s is 4.4. So basically right in line with each other.
What’s been interesting is how Smith has adjusted his pitch mix. Through July, his combined fastball/sinker usage was around 50%. Over the past two months, that number has climbed closer to 65%. Meanwhile, his changeup usage has dropped from about 20% to 12%.
That changeup was long considered his best pitch and the reason Chicago grabbed him in the Rule 5 Draft. But instead of relying on it, he’s moved toward more fastballs—and he’s still been just as effective. It’s good to see him mixing things up, not letting hitters sit on the changeup, and attacking more aggressively with the heater. Opponents adjusted, and he adjusted right back.
The White Sox offense has also been really enjoyable to watch. Honestly, it’s probably the most fun Sox team since the stretch with Luis Robert, Yoan Moncada, Lucas Giolito, and Dylan Cease.
Just the other day against the Padres, they went 0-for-11 with runners in scoring position and stranded 11 runners. Every inning it felt like they had traffic—first and second, nobody out—but just couldn’t get the big hit. Still, the process was good: they worked deep counts, found ways to get on base, and consistently put pressure on the pitching.
Obviously Gil has better raw stuff than Smith—101 Stuff+ versus 95—but his command is much worse. And I do think this White Sox lineup, with its patience, can take advantage of Gil’s wildness tonight.
Pick: White Sox ML (+190, bet365)
White Sox vs Yankees Betting Trends
