We've got a full, 15-game slate on tap for Tuesday, September 1, starting early with four matchs at 6:40 PM ET and closing with Cardinals vs Dodgers (10:10 PM ET, Dodger Stadium).
We've compiled our four favorite picks for today's slate below.
So, read on for our MLB Best Bets Today.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 6:40 PM | |
  | 8:40 PM | |
  | 9:38 PM | |
  | 10:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Charlie Wright's F5 Giants vs Pirates Pick
Paul Skenes finally came through with a solid start last time out, shutting out the Padres over 6 innings. He sat 97.2 mph with his fastball, which is a slight improvement from recent outings but still down from the first half of the season.
Skenes recorded a 100 Stuff+ in that start. He had a 115 Location+, which helps explain the strong result despite the mediocre Stuff+ grade. Skenes draws a tough matchup against a Giants lineup that ranked 7th in wRC+ against RHP in August.
Logan Webb got back on track after stumbling against the Red Sox. He fired 6 innings of 2-run ball against the Reds. Webb gets a tremendous matchup.
The Pirates ranked dead last in wRC+ vs. RHP in August. I'm surprised the Pirates are this big of a favorite given the current nature of the offenses.
Read full Giants-Pirates breakdown here:
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Pick: Giants F5 Moneyline (+140)
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Blue Jays vs Guardians K Prop
By Action Network Staff
Toronto hands the ball to right-hander Spencer Arrighetti, who carries a 7-7 record, a 4.81 ERA, and a 1.36 WHIP with 95 strikeouts across his combined body of work.
Arrighetti is still searching for his first victory in a Blue Jays uniform after being hit hard for a 7.36 ERA across his initial two starts with the club. Facing a disciplined Cleveland lineup that avoids high swing-and-miss rates, Arrighetti projects to struggle finding easy punchouts.
Action PRO projections target Arrighetti for just 3.12 strikeouts in this matchup against Cleveland. When weighed against his current prop line of Over/Under 3.5 Ks, this forecast creates a generous 14.4% value edge favoring the Under.
That model differential earns a top-tier A grade in our rating system.
Read full Blue Jays-Guardians breakdown here:
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Pick: Spencer Arrighetti Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+110)
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Grant Neiffer's Brewers vs Cubs Home Run Pick
We have another wind game in Wrigley, and these odds are too high again.
We haven't seen a ton of Robert Gasser in the majors, but he's struggled heavily with righty power (1.55 HR/9).
The temperatures are going to be hot in Wrigley, with winds blowing out around 8 mph.
I have the true odds here around +400, making this a great bet.
Read full Brewers-Cubs breakdown here:
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Pick: Alex Bregman Home Run (+480)
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Derek Carty's Yankees vs Angels Pitching Bet
By Derek Carty
On the surface, this looks like a good spot for Gerrit Cole because it is.
He's facing a bad Angels roster, and we know that Cole is a good pitcher. Albeit, he's not the same guy he used to be, but nonetheless, he's still pretty good.
This bet is one where I'm really just trusting the projection. According to The Bat X, it sees this as something close to a coin flip, about 16 and a half projected outs.
So if there's going to be plus money on this, I'm going to take it.
I think the biggest thing this comes down to is that the system is seeing is just that Cole hasn't been like the 95-100 pitch pitcher that he's been in the past this year.
He's only averaged, I think, 88 pitches, projected for only 88 today. So, I think that's kind of what we're looking at here.
Read full Yankees-Angels breakdown here:
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Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 17.5 Outs (Play to -110)
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Nick Martin's Cardinals vs Dodgers F5 Bet
By Nick Martin
After a brief period of improved results when he initially joined the Dodgers, Eric Lauer has been far from effective of late in pitching to an ERA of 4.65 with an xFIP of 5.29 throughout his last 40 and 2/3 innings of work. He holds a Stuff+ rating of 89 in that span and has allowed a zone contact rate of 88.8%.
Since June 1, the Cardinals hold a wRC+ of 101 versus left-handed pitching and own the third-lowest strikeout rate in baseball. They have been even more potent versus lefties of late, posting a 115 wRC+ against southpaws over the last 30 days while ranking eighth in hard-hit rate and seventh in BB/K ratio.
Michael McGreevy has pitched to an ERA of 4.58 throughout his last 59 innings, with an xFIP of 4.36 and a Pitching+ rating of 96. He was torched in his most recent start versus the Orioles, but there still seems to be a fairly sound case for preferring him over Lauer.
Obviously, on paper, the Dodgers lineup should be expected to trend toward better results as the playoffs draw closer, but over what has become a fairly large sample, Los Angeles has not hit right-handed pitching effectively. Over the last two months, the Dodgers hold a wRC+ of just 89 versus righties and rank 16th in expected wOBA, and perhaps a level of complacency has crept into the team.
Read Nick Martin's The Leadoff here:
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Pick: Cardinals F5 Moneyline (Play to +125)
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