Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Julio Urias vs. Yu Darvish (Monday, June 21)

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds, Preview, Prediction: How to Bet Julio Urias vs. Yu Darvish (Monday, June 21) article feature image
Credit:

Michael Owens/Getty Images. Pictured: Mookie Betts #50 of the Los Angeles Dodgers and Manny Machado #13 of the San Diego Padres.

  • MLB's biggest rivalry of 2021 is back at it on Monday night when the Dodgers head south to face the Padres.
  • Yu Darvish will start for San Diego opposite Los Angeles' Julio Urias for a juicy pitching matchup to open the series.
  • Michael Arinze breaks down the matchup and picks a side for bettors to back at Petco Park.

Dodgers vs. Padres Odds

Dodgers Odds +107
Padres Odds -124
Over/Under 7 (-113 / -107)
Time 10:10 p.m. ET
TV ESPN
Odds as of Monday and via DraftKings.

On Monday night, the Dodgers and Padres will renew what has become perhaps the best rivalry in baseball as the two teams meet for the eighth time this season. Los Angeles won the first two games, but San Diego then won four of the next five meetings.

Both teams come into this series in good form as the Dodgers are on a three-game winning streak, including wins in 10 of their past 12 ball games. The Padres are also on a winning streak after sweeping the Reds at home in a four-game series.

With the Dodgers coming to town, Yu Darvish will try to ensure San Diego’s record remains perfect on this homestand. Opposing Darvish will be Julio Urias from the Dodgers.

This should be an interesting series considering the Dodgers rank second in baseball with a +103 run differential. And after outscoring the hapless Diamondbacks by 10 runs in their series sweep, the Dodgers will face a stiffer challenge against a Padres team that has outscored them through seven games.

Let’s dig into the most recent installment of this highly anticipated rivalry.

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Los Angeles Dodgers

The Dodgers didn’t need their A-lineup to get past the Diamondbacks last weekend. After all, Arizona came into the series with the worst record in baseball and a 14-game losing streak. The Padres will be a much greater test, and the Dodgers won’t be too keen on going into battle without some of their key weapons.

Max Muncy (oblique), Cory Seager (hand), and Cody Bellinger (hamstring) are all expected to miss the series opener. While all three are quality players, Muncy’s absence is certainly the biggest loss considering his .264/.418/.528 slash line. His .264 ISO is through the roof, along with his wRC+ value of 162. No one in the Dodgers lineup creates more scoring opportunities than Muncy, as evidenced by his 18.9% walk rate. Not having him available will certainly be a blow for LA but also a relief for Darvish.

The Dodgers’ available players have 75 at-bats against Darvish but a bleak .133/.241/.267 slash line projected lineup, Their.236 wOBA is less than their OBP, so they haven’t done a great job getting into run-scoring positions.

Runs could be at a premium in this game, given that the total opened at 6.5. Yet, when you look at the Dodgers’ ability to run the bases, which is also part of manufacturing runs, they’re in the bottom half of the league (-0.1) according to the FanGraphs Ultimate Base Running (UBR) metric.

In contrast, the Padres are atop the league as they’re valued to be 5.8 runs above average in that category.


San Diego Padres

There’s been a lot of chirping by the Padres in this series lately, as it reminds me of the little brother who has grown tired of losing to the big brother in the backyard. Both teams met in the NLDS last year, and despite getting swept by the Dodgers, you could clearly see the Padres growing in confidence with every game.

That confidence carried over into this season as they got off to an 8-3 start. They lost their first three-game series with LA at home but roared back to win three out of four against them the following weekend at Dodger Stadium. But it was how San Diego won the final game of that series on Sunday Night Baseball that was so impressive.

After trailing 7-1 at the end of the sixth inning, the Padres scored two runs apiece in the next three innings before winning the game 8-7 in the 11th inning.

The Dodgers had just one stolen base in the game, whereas the Padres had five. That game showed that not only do the Padres run the bases better than any team in baseball, but they’re also the best at swiping bags as they are scoring 3.8 runs above average using the FanGraphs Weighted Stolen Base Runs metric (wSB).

That should worry a Dodgers team that has allowed the most stolen bases (57) this season.

Dodgers-Padres Pick

It’s not often that I analyze a game, more so based on each team’s ability to manufacture runs on the basepaths. But for the Padres, it’s a clear advantage they have over the Dodgers, so you can be sure they’ll use it every opportunity they get.

That strategy will be key against Urias, who, at 9-2, is off to a fine start this season. While the Padres haven’t hit particularly well against him given their .250/.282/.417 slash line, their lineup does have a .167 ISO with two home runs. And with both lineups possibly struggling against the quality of the opposing starter, run creation will be even more critical in this game.

The bullpens could also come into play just as in the previous meeting when the Padres held the Dodgers scoreless for the final five innings of the game while LA blew a 7-1 lead. Keep in mind that the Dodgers are tied for second for the most blown saves (14) this season.

When you sum it all up and add in the Dodgers’ injuries in their lineup, the Padres are the only side I can get behind in this matchup.

I would look to play them on the money line at -124, which you can find at DraftKings.

Pick: Padres ML (-124)

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