Thursday MLB Player Prop Bets & Picks, Including Freddy Peralta & Eduardo Rodriguez (July 29)
John Fisher/Getty Images. Pictured: Milwaukee Brewers starting pitcher Freddy Peralta.
- Two starting pitchers. Two strikeout totals that should go over the numbers.
- Tanner McGrath breaks it all down with his top picks on Thursday's Major League Baseball schedule.
- Check out below why he likes Freddy Peralta and Eduardo Rodriguez to shine.
After taking a good, long look at Thursday’s pitching matchups using the Action Labs Player Prop tool, there’s two strikeout totals I’m targeting on the schedule.
Our Action Labs tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade below my explanation.
MLB Player Prop & Pick
Freddy Peralta — Over 6.5 Strikeouts (+105)
|Brewers vs. Pirates||Brewers (-200)|
|Time||7:05 p.m. ET|
Fangraph’s SaberSim projections gave Peralta finishing with 7.13 strikeouts, while our Action Labs’ projections has him at eight flat. The Pirates are disciplined, and their lineup has been okay recently, but getting over 6.5 strikeouts at plus money is too much value to pass up.
Peralta is having an incredible season, recording a 2.29 ERA and a 3.71 xFIP thus far. There isn’t a weakness in his game, and he’s allowed less than .200 xBA on all three of his most-used pitches.
However, the most impressive part about Peralta’s game are his strikeout rates. He’s punching out 35% of batters faced and 12.35 per nine innings, which are numbers that rank among the top 6% of qualified pitchers.
With strikeout numbers like that, Peralta just has to make it five innings to hit the over 6.5 mark. And, in two starts against the Pirates this season, he’s pitched 11 innings and recorded 14 strikeouts.
I like Peralta to continue this trend and think over 6.5 provides tons of value in this showdown.
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Eduardo Rodriguez — Over 5.5 Strikeouts (-110)
|Red Sox vs. Blue Jays||Red Sox (-125)|
|Time||7:10 p.m. ET|
Rodriguez has had a tough season. However, he’s been extremely unlucky, as the difference between his 5.23 ERA and 3.66 xERA is one of the largest among MLB starters. A .355 BABIP will do that to a pitcher.
Overall, I have a lot of faith in Rodriguez’s future. A big reason is that he’s on track to post both the highest strikeout rate (10.56 K/9) and lowest walk rate (2.24 BB/9) of his career, which are stats that are often telling of how a pitcher is performing.
Combine those two figures with a half-decent home-run rate (1.31 HR/9) and Rodriguez has an xFIP all the way down at 3.34 in his campaign.
The Toronto Blue Jays boast a great lineup that performs well against southpaws and stays very disciplined. However, the Action Labs player prop tool is projecting Rodriguez with 6.1 strikeouts,and I tend to agree with that evaluation.
Therefore, I’m taking the value and playing the over 5.5 number on DraftKings as my other top selection.
Action Labs Grade: 8/10