We've got a shorter, 9-game Major League Baseball slate on Thursday, starting with Cardinals vs Reds (12:40 PM ET, Great American Ballpark), including Yankees vs Orioles (6:35 PM ET, Camden Yards), and closing with Angels vs Astros (8:10 PM ET, Daikin Park).
Read on for our 4 MLB Best Bets Today for Thursday, August 20.
MLB Best Bets Today
The team logos in the table below represent each of the matchups that our MLB betting staff is targeting from today's slate of games. Click on the team logos for any of the matchups below to navigate to a specific bet discussed in this article.
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
|---|---|---|
  | 12:40 PM | |
  | 1:10 PM | |
  | 6:35 PM | |
  | 8:10 PM | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our MLB Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Sean Paul's Cardinals vs Reds Best Bet
By Sean Paul
The Cardinals have enjoyed some real success pitching to this Reds lineup in this series, and they'll hope Michael McGreevy can put the finishing touches on this pitching masterpiece.
McGreevy is a pitcher who has benefited from good fortune this year, as his 3.48 ERA masks his poor 5.47 xERA and 4.25 FIP. Underlying numbers that isolate what a pitcher can control (like FIP) will never be fond of a 6.20 K/9 and 1.23 HR/9. Those are usually telltale signs that a pitcher has been pretty lucky.
He gets hit hard, doesn't strike out hitters, and allows a lot of fly balls. To me, that feels like a recipe for disaster in a hitter's park like Great American Ball Park.
The Cardinals haven't taken advantage of the hitter-friendly park in this series. They scored five runs in one of them, but you'd expect more than 14 runs in four games in a hitter's haven.
That is par for the course for this St. Louis offense, which ranks 22nd in MLB with an 89 wRC+ over its past 30 games. You can expect some expansive at-bats from this lineup, as they boast a 9% walk rate (12th) and 20.8% strikeout rate (ninth) in that span.
The issue is the Cardinals' lack of thump. They are 28th in home runs and ISO over 31 games, and Alec Burleson accounts for six of the 25 long balls. The hard-hitting lefty boasts a 164 wRC+ over the last month, and he's one of just two hitters on the roster with a wRC+ above 95.
The Reds will hand the ball to the consistently mediocre Brady Singer. The veteran righty owns a 4.66 ERA, a 5.03 xERA, and a 5.13 FIP. The one good thing about Singer is he usually pitches five or six innings and rarely gives up more than three or four runs.
Looking at his past eight starts, Singer pitched 5+ innings in all but one and allowed four or fewer runs in all eight. Hence why I called him "consistently mediocre." A team can live with three runs in five innings, but it makes him a decent innings-eater and nothing more.
If I'm keeping things honest, the Reds lineup has also been bad. They rank 28th in MLB with an 80 wRC+.
This matchup makes sense to me, though. The Reds struggle to hit velocity and have a 27% strikeout rate in the past month. Against McGreevy, a soft-tosser with a low strikeout rate, the Reds have a chance to get back on track.
You couldn't find two more polar-opposite struggling offenses if you tried. The DNA of this Reds team is hitting the ball out, hitting 45 homers in their last 32 games (2nd in MLB). The trio of Elly De La Cruz, Eugenio Suarez, and Sal Stewart have gotten red hot, combining for 20 of the 45 homers.
At least I see a path for this Reds offense to put up a crooked number for one game. On the contrary, you really have to squint to see anything with the Cardinals.
I struggle to see why the Cardinals are favorites on the road here. Each team has a very flawed pitcher with a struggling lineup. However, the Reds have the proper approach to take advantage of McGreevy's home run problems. That's the difference maker in a matchup the oddsmakers view as pretty even.
Pick: Reds ML (-110 or Better)
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Matt Trollo's Braves vs White Sox Best Bet
By Matt Trollo
Grant Holmes is boasting a 3.82 ERA that’s at least three-quarters of a run below estimators ranging from a 4.56 xFIP to 4.91 FIP, a tight enough scope to tell you who he very probably is. His .264 BABIP and 81.2 LOB% are both career bests, with a career-worst 43 HardHit%.
The first five in BARTOLO’s projected lineup for the White Sox on Thursday all have a 110 or better wRC+ against RHP this season, with the middle three of those above a .200 ISO too. In all, this lineup averages a 111 wRC+ against RHP, 101 wRC+ over the last 30 days, and 113 at home. This is legitimately one of the better lineups in the league.
The Atlanta defense is solid with Michael Harris (10 FRV) leading a projected defense at 4 FRV.
The Atlanta bullpen is BARTOLO’s 13th-ranked unit (3.90 wFIP), but has struggled to MLB’s absolute worst indicators over the last month (5.41 FIP, 4.85 xFIP, 4.13 SIERA). That's a 1.8 HR/9 for the month (2nd highest in the league) with a 12 K-BB%.
Chicago White Sox Betting Preview
Over the season, Anthony Kay has a 4.01 ERA with his underlying spectrum running from a 4.51 Bot ERA to a 5.16 dERA. The 78 LOB% is a bit high and has peaked at 84.4% over his last seven starts.
However, Kay has actually been legitimately better over this seven-start span as well, with a 12.5 K-BB%, 8.0% Barrels/BBE, a 4.39 xERA, and 4.29 xFIP. All better numbers than Holmes has run over the same seven-start block (8.6 K-BB%, 9.0% Barrels/BBE, 5.19 xERA, 4.47 xFIP).
The Braves generally leave three of their left-handed batters in the lineup against LHP (Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson and Michael Harris). They also generally hit them in the top half of the order when they do so. This projected lineup averages just an 89 wRC+ against southpaws, a 77 wRC+ over the last 30 days and an 80 wRC+ on the road.
The three LHBs are three of the five projected Braves above a 100 wRC+ against LHP this year, but Kay has stifled LHBs this season to the tune of a .248 wOBA, .264 xwOBA, and 26.9 K%.
We also have a Chicago defense projected at 14 FRV with their three up-the-middle players (Colson Montgomery, Chase Meidroth and Tristan Peters) accounting for 24 FRV on their own.
The White Sox are BARTOLO’s 19th-best bullpen (4.05 wFIP), though they’ve been more than half a run better than the Braves over the last month (3.99 FIP, 4.48 xFIP, 4.17 SIERA).
I rate the starting pitchers similarly (Kay slightly better), but give the White Sox a substantial offensive edge here that goes against perception. They also have a projected 10 FRV edge without much of a bullpen gap if you take both BARTOLO’s numbers and last 30-day estimators into consideration.
Either way, the White Sox are at home, and there is nothing that comes up Braves here. The White Sox are pretty clearly favorites here for me.
Pick: White Sox ML (-135 or Better)
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Derek Carty's Yankees vs Orioles Best Bet
By Derek Carty
There may be some value on Gerrit Cole's pitching outs prop.
THE BAT X projects him to record 15.87 outs today, while oddsmakers are implying 18.16. The model believes there is a 61% chance he records fewer than 18 pitching outs against the Orioles.
This play is good down to at least -126.
Love THE BAT X? Get all of Carty's sports betting projections at EV Analytics!
Pick: Gerrit Cole Under 17.5 Outs (-126 or Better)
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Tanner McGrath's Angels vs Astros Best Bet
Our own Sean Zerillo projects some value on the Angles in this game.
If you'd like to dive deeper into this matchup, I reccomend checking out BARTOLO, Zerillo's new PRO betting tool giving our PRO subscribers access to all the live data he uses to project games each day.
Grayson Rodriguez is the much better starting pitcher in this matchup despite his 7.17 ERA (3.65 botERA, 3.92 weighted FIP), so I think he and the Halos might be undervalued at +160 or better.
Pick: Angels ML (+160 or Better)
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