Friday’s MLB Player Prop Odds & Picks: How to Bet Madison Bumgarner & Andrew Heaney (Friday, April 30)
Bob Levey/Getty Images. Pictured: Andrew Heaney.
- Friday night's slate of MLB games brings value on two strikeout props for lefty starters out west.
- Kevin Davis lays out his case against Madison Bumgarner and Andrew Heaney.
With a large slate of games, there are many props to choose from. Today, there are two unders I like on strikeout totals for two strong pitchers.
For this article I will be evaluating my favorite MLB player props based on what my model likes and what the Action Labs Player Prop tool likes. The Action Labs Player Prop tool grades each bet on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade. I will be adding my own personal grades, as well.
Below, I have laid out two prop bets that I am playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.
2021 MLB Pitcher Prop Record: 20-16, +1.34 Units, +3.7% ROI (My action can be followed on the Action App at BoogieDownPicks).
MLB Player Props & Picks
Madison Bumgarner (ARI) 6.5 Strikeouts (+105/-140)
|Rockies vs Diamondbacks||ARI -120|
|Time||9:40 p.m. ET|
In his last start, Madison Bumgarner threw a no-hitter that MLB claims isn’t a no-hitter because it was during a seven-inning game. Despite pitching for seven innings, Bumgarner had only seven strikeouts. If Bumgarner had given up a hit in that game, chances are that the D-Backs would have taken him out. In his other four starts this season, he pitched around five innings and had fewer than seven strikeouts.
I believe that Bumgarner reverts to the mean tonight, and that is why I am betting that he has under 6.5 strikeouts.
Last season should be a warning sign for taking the over on Bumgarner strikeout props. Not only did Bumgarner have a 1-4 record with a 6.48 ERA, but he had a strikeout rate of only 6.48 strikeouts per nine innings. Last season on a typical night, he could have pitched a complete game and still have fewer than seven strikeouts.
This season, Bumgarner has a strikeout rate of 9.47 strikeouts per nine innings, but even that is not good enough for him to have seven or more strikeouts tonight. If you exclude Bumgarner’s “no hitter,” he is averaging fewer than five innings per start. Last season, he averaged almost 4 2/3.
At Bumgarner’s current strikeout rate, he would have to pitch 6 2/3 innings to go over his strikeout total. Given how unlikely that is, I believe that he goes under his strikeout total.
Pick: Madison Bumgarner Under 6.5 Strikeouts (-140). Would play up to -165 (BetMGM)
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 9
Andrew Heaney (LAA) 7.5 Strikeouts (-104/-125)
|Angels vs. Mariners||LAA -155|
|Time||10:10 p.m. ET|
For the 2021 season, Andrew Heaney has the highest strikeout rate of his career. Additionally, the Seattle Mariners lineup averages 9.76 strikeouts per game, the second most in the league.
Despite that, I am taking the under on Heaney’s strikeout total today because the number has been set too high.
While Heaney has a strikeout rate of 12.63 strikeouts per nine innings this season, his career average is 9.06. Going into the season, he was projected to have 10.34 strikeouts per nine innings. Assuming that Heaney was to pitch his typical 5 2/3 innings, he would have 7.94 strikeouts today, slightly going over his total if he were to throw his current strikeout rate.
However, if he were to have his preseason projected strikeout rate, Heaney would have only 6.51 strikeouts.
It will be a sweat, but Heaney should go under his strikeout total.
Pick: Andrew Heaney Under 7.5 Strikeouts (-125). Would play up to -145 (DraftKings)
- Action Labs Score: 10
- Kevin Davis Score: 7