MLB Player Props: Can Vince Velasquez Strikeout More than 5 Marlins?
Mar 7, 2016; Bradenton, FL, USA; Philadelphia Phillies relief pitcher Vincent Velasquez (28) throws during the first inning of a spring training baseball game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at McKechnie Field. Mandatory Credit: Reinhold Matay-USA TODAY Sports
The final round of the Masters is on, there’s a full day of baseball on the docket, and Game of Thrones premies tonight. Sunday is shaping up to be a good day no matter what your interests are!
MLB Player Props: Sunday, April 14
There aren’t many strikeout props that stand out today, but a couple stand out from the following two games:
- Philadelphia Phillies at Miami Marlins : 1:10 p.m. ET
- Detroit Tigers at Minnesota Twins: 2:10 p.m. ET
Phillies SP Vince Velasquez
THE PICK: Over 5.0 Strikeouts (-130)
Velasquez disappointed in his first start, whiffing just two against the Nationals, but their lineup has a relatively low strikeout rate against righties.
The Marlins are a different story: Their lineup has a 29.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past 12 months, the highest mark on today’s slate.
Velasquez’s 4.12 xFIP last year was average, but he did well from a strikeout perspective, sporting a 25.6% strikeout rate and 9.88 K/9 mark.
The only concern here is the fact that we have him at a projected pitch count of 81.1, which will probably put him right around 5.0 innings of work, meaning he’ll need to average just over a strikeout per inning to hit the over.
Still, I’d bet this up to -140, though I’d prefer not having to lay any more than the -130 juice being offered at the time of writing.
Tigers SP Jordan Zimmermann
THE PICK: Over 4.0 Strikeouts (+120)
Zimmerman has averaged a 7.41 K/9 rate over the past year, and the projected Twins lineup has a 22.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers over the past year.
Those marks aren’t exactly encouraging — but that has created value on this prop at plus money. Zimmermann would’ve pushed this prop twice and won it once so far this season.
At +120 I’d take a shot here, but I wouldn’t bet it beyond +110.
Update: I’d bet this prop to even money.