MLB Playoff Prop Picks, PrizePicks Plays for Padres vs Phillies NLCS Game 3
Pictured: Trent Grisham. (Photo by Denis Poroy/Getty Images)
Player props have become among the most popular bets in the industry, but while the amount of states with legalized gambling is growing, some may feel left out.
Let’s take a look at some of the options on Friday’s Major League Baseball slate and see where we can find some value to turn a profit.
A quick refresher if you aren’t familiar with PrizePicks: you can combine up to five different O/U player props to payout up to 10x your wager.
You can do a Flex Play or a Power Play. A Flex Play gives you lesser odds, but you can win money even if you don’t nail every pick. Meanwhile, a Power Play is similar to a parlay — it’s all or nothing.
Here’s how I would approach today’s MLB slate.
What is PrizePicks? A daily fantasy operator — meaning they’re available in more states (30) than sports betting is! — PrizePicks offers a unique opportunity for action on player props in which you parlay two or more plays together.
Joe Musgrove Pitcher Fantasy Score Over 26.5
Taking the mound for San Diego is right-hander Joe Musgrove, who should be an excellent candidate to back in this contest. Across two playoff starts, Musgrove boats a 1.39 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. Additionally, the Padres have won each of those games.
Musgrove has been brilliant all season as he went 10-7 with a 2.93 ERA and a 1.08 WHIP through 30 starts. However, he has recently elevated his game even more.
Over his past six starts (including the two playoff games), the right-hander is 2-0 with a 0.77 ERA and a 0.97 WHIP. He has been absolutely lights out, a trend we should expect to continue against Philadelphia.
Over five career appearances against the Phillies, Musgrove is 2-1 with a 3.00 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP.
Trent Grisham Over 0.5 Total Bases
We are also backing a couple of San Diego hitters in this game as they are slated to go against left-hander Ranger Suarez. Through 29 starts this season, Suarez is 10-7 with a 3.65 ERA and a 1.33 WHIP.
While those numbers are neither great nor horrible, his recent form is more concerning. Over the left hander's past eight starts, he is 2-2 with a 4.42 ERA and a 1.52 WHIP.
His command has struggled mightily, which could be a big problem against a disciplined San Diego lineup. The first Padres hitter we are backing is Trent Grisham.
This should be a great opportunity to buy low on Grisham after he failed to record a hit in each of the first two games of this series against much stronger pitchers. Prior to those two outings, Grisham had recorded at least one hit in nine of his past 10 games.
In his career against Suarez, Grisham is 1-for-4 with a single.
Austin Nola Under 0.5 Strikeouts
We are also going to back San Diego catcher Austin Nola to not strike out in this game. Nola has struck out just once over the past four games and has failed to do so in either of his games against Philadelphia, a trend that should continue in Game 3.
The second-most disciplined hitter on this team, Nola trails only Juan Soto for the lowest K% on the Padres this season at 15.1%. Through four career plate appearances against Suarez, Nola is 2-for-4 with a single, a double and zero strikeouts.
When facing left-handed pitching this season, Nola's numbers jump by approximately 22% to a .285 BA, .400 SLG and a .733 OPS.