MLB Props Today | Odds, Picks for Jake Irvin, Chris Bassitt (Monday, July 31)
Mitchell Layton/Getty Images. Pictured: Jake Irvin
I try to add an edge to my MLB betting card each day by selecting a few player props using our Action Labs projections.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool grades each prop on a scale from 1-10, and I’ll be sure to include the grade for each of my betting picks in the discussion below.
Here are my MLB player prop picks for the MLB slate on Monday, July 31, including bets for Jake Irvin and Chris Bassitt.
MLB Player Props For Monday, July 31
Jake Irvin Under 4.5 Strikeouts (-140)
|Nationals vs. Brewers|
|First Pitch||7:05 p.m. ET|
I think Jake Irvin is a tad overvalued right now. He racked up 16 strikeouts over his past two starts against the Giants and Rockies, but he only cashed over 4.5 strikeouts in three of his prior 10 starts.
Before his breakout over the past two weeks, Irvin was a 15% strikeout guy. I don’t believe he’ll be able to sustain the 15% Swinging-Strike rate he’s posted over the past two starts.
There’s nothing in his underlying statistical profile that suggests he will. His Stuff+ metrics are down over the past two weeks, and his Location+ metrics are middling. He’s seen no increase in velocity on his fastball, and his secondaries look just OK.
Irvin’s pitch counts are up, as he managed 105 pitches against San Francisco and 111 against Colorado. Still, I’m not buying what he’s selling.
Meanwhile, at least from a strikeout perspective, Milwaukee’s bats might be undervalued. The Brewers are striking out at a top-10 rate against right-handed pitching on the season, but they have the fifth-lowest mark against the side over the past month (20.4%). They’ve held seven of the past 11 opposing right-handed starting pitchers under their strikeout prop.
Our Action Labs Player Props Tool projects Irvin for only 3.5 strikeouts today, while RotoWire and Jon Anderson’s models have him striking out 3.9.
Everyone expects Irvin to regress to the mean, and I’m willing to toss a unit on that analysis.
Pick: Under 4.5 Ks (-140)
Action Labs Grade: 10/10
Chris Bassitt Under 5.5 Strikeouts (-125)
|Blue Jays vs. Orioles|
|First Pitch||7:07 p.m. ET|
Chris Bassitt frustrates me.
He doesn’t seem like a great pitcher. His 3.91 ERA and 4.46 xERA are backed up by a mediocre batted-ball profile and a below-average Stuff+ mark (91 across his arsenal, 74 on his fastball).
Yet, Bassitt has pitched at least six innings of shutout ball in seven separate starts this year. I’m pretty sure I’ve faded him in all seven starts.
Anyway, I don’t believe in Bassitt. I’ll keep going to the well, even if it stings.
Bassitt has stayed under 5.5 strikeouts in 15 of his 22 starts this season. His 22% strikeout rate and 14.6 K-BB rate are nothing to write about. He throws eight pitches, but only his sweeper is above average (20.3% Swinging-Strike rate, 107 Stuff+ rating). He ranks in the 25th percentile of pitchers in Swinging-Strike rate across his arsenal (9.3%)
The Orioles strike out at a league-average rate, but they’re a deeper lineup that will grind down pitchers (eighth in pitches per plate appearance seen, 3.94). They’ve held five straight opposing starting pitchers under their strikeout prop.
Projections have Bassitt striking out between 4.8 and 5.0 batters today, and I’m willing to bet he lands exactly on five more often than not.
Pick: Under 5.5 Ks (-125)
Action Labs Grade: 8/10