Tuesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Nationals-Phillies, Two Other Games
Trea Turner and Carlos Santana. Credit: Eric Hartline-USA TODAY Sports
- Sharps are betting three MLB games on Tuesday, headlined by Washington Nationals-Philadelphia Phillies (7:05 p.m. ET), with Washington listed as a -114 favorite and an over/under of 7
- Wiseguys are also betting Tampa Bay Rays-Atlanta Braves (7:35 p.m. ET) and Seattle Mariners-San Diego Padres (10:10 p.m. ET)
Wiseguys started their week off right last night, going 2-1 (+1.49 units) with their Monday plays. Sharps will look to stay hot and spend another night in Green Dot City on Tuesday.
After analyzing Tuesday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 7:35 p.m. and 10:10 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Washington Nationals at Philadelphia Phillies
- Sharp angle: Over 7
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
The ultimate Pros vs. Joes over/under bet. With Max Scherzer (16-6, 2.13 ERA) facing Aaron Nola (15-3, 2.13 ERA), the public sees a lock of the century Under play.
Not the sharps. Despite 76% of bets taking the Under, the total has remained frozen at 7 and the juice has trended Over, moving from 7 Under -115 to 7 Over -123. This signals Over liability with the next move likely up to 7.5, not down to 6.5.
The wind is blowing out at 6-7 mph, and Sam Holbrook is behind the plate, one of the top Over umps since 2005 (Unders are -40.20 units with Holbook calling balls and strikes).
Tampa Bay Rays at Atlanta Braves
- Sharp angle: Rays +115
- First pitch: 7:35 p.m. ET
Tampa Bay has quietly been one of the best teams to bet on this season (70-61, +16.39 units). However, despite riding an eight-game winning streak and just having swept the mighty Red Sox, Tampa still isn’t getting any public love.
Currently 66% of bets taking the Braves at home tonight, yet Atlanta has fallen from -130 to -125, indicating wiseguy reverse line movement on Tampa.
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The Rays are getting more money (41%) than bets (35%) and also match the profitable Bet Labs system Average AL Teams vs NL Teams (+119.65 units since 2005).
Seattle Mariners at San Diego Padres
- Sharp angle: Padres +107
- First pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The public sees Felix Hernandez on the mound against the lowly Padres and says Seattle all day. But King Felix isn’t what he used to be (8-11, 5.64 ERA), providing sharps a sneaky contrarian play on the home interleague dog.
San Diego is getting only 27% of bets but 39% of dollars, and the Padres have moved from +125 to +107 since opening . Why would the oddsmakers drop the line to give public Seattle bettors a better number?
Because pros have been hammering San Diego.
San Diego also fits the profitable Bet Labs system New Series, All Signs Point to Opponent (+186.59 units since 2005).
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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