Wednesday Sharp Report: Pros Betting Blue Jays-Orioles, Two Other Games
Craig Gentry and Jonathan Villar. Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports
- Sharps are betting three MLB games on Wednesday, headlined by Toronto Blue Jays-Baltimore Orioles (7:05 p.m. ET), with Baltimore listed as a -110 favorite with an over/under of 9.
- Wiseguys are also betting Pittsburgh Pirates-St. Louis Cardinals (8:15 p.m. ET) and Arizona Diamondbacks-San Francisco Giants (10:15 p.m. ET).
Wiseguys kept the good times rolling on Tuesday, cashing their Nationals-Phillies contrarian Over 7 (30% bets) and Padres moneyline (25% bets, +107) en route to a 2-1 night. With a stacked Wednesday board, sharps will stay selective and look to extend their winning streak to three consecutive days.
After analyzing Wednesday’s 15-game slate using Sports Insights’ Sportsbook Insider Pro betting tools, I’ve pinpointed three MLB bets that professionals are focusing on, starting at 7:05 p.m., 8:15 p.m. and 10:15 p.m. ET.
Betting Terms to Know
Steam Move: Sudden, drastic and uniform line movement across the market caused by an overload of sharp action from respected players.
Reverse Line Movement: When the betting line moves in the opposite direction of the betting percentages. It’s a top smart money indicator.
Line Freeze: When one side is getting heavy betting but the line won’t budge, indicating sharp liability on the other side.
Juice: The tax or commission that bettors must pay sportsbooks in order for them to accept your wager. A -115 juice means a bettor would have to wager $115 to win $100.
Toronto Blue Jays at Baltimore Orioles
- Sharp angle: Orioles -110
- First pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Break up the Orioles! They’ve taken the first two games of the series and look to complete the three-game sweep tonight at Camden Yards. Public bettors see Baltimore’s record (39-94) and say there’s no way they can win three in a row.
But sharps aren’t buying the Gambler’s Fallacy. They’re back on the Bird Train. The O’s are getting 40% of bets but 64% of dollars, and the line has moved bigly in their favor (+119 to -110).
Sharps at SBG hammered Baltimore +103, and the Orioles also fit the profitable Bet Labs system Bad Team After Win (+166.32 units since 2005).
Pittsburgh Pirates at St. Louis Cardinals
- Sharp angle: Pirates +146
- First pitch: 8:15 p.m. ET
The Pirates (64-68) are scuffling. They lost the series opener to the Cardinals, 5-2, last night, their 11th loss in the last 14 games. Meanwhile, the Cards (74-58) are surging, having gone 16-3 in their last 19 games. Sounds like a Cards layup tonight.
Not so fast, say the sharps. St. Louis is getting 75% of bets but only 56% of dollars, indicating mostly Average Joe support. The line has also fallen from -170 to -158, signaling sharp reverse line movement on the Buccos.
Wiseguys at CRIS, Pinnacle and SIA all hit Pittsburgh between +155 and +157. The Pirates also fit the profitable Bet Labs system Betting Against the Public Report (+177.59 units since 2005).
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Arizona Diamondbacks at San Francisco Giants
- Sharp angle: Over 7.5
- First pitch: 10:15 p.m. ET
The G-Men edged the Snakes, 1-0, last night, with the Under cashing easily without a sweat. With Dereck Rodriguez (2.30 ERA) on the mound for the Giants tonight, public players are going back to the Under well, but sharps are eyeing a contrarian Over.
Currently 67% of bets are on the Under, but the total has remained frozen at 7.5. This indicates Under liability, with sportsbooks reluctant to drop the total to 7 and hand out a better number to Goodfellas eyeing the Over.
Pros at Buckeye and CRIS got down hard on the Over 7.5, triggering a pair of reverse line moves. The CRIS move is particularly meaningful. It’s up +26 units this season, the best MLB bet signal overall.
An added bonus for Over backers: the wind is blowing straight out to center at 6-9 mph.
All bets risking one unit, not to win one unit. All plays Listed Pitcher, not Action.
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