Back in June, Shohei Ohtani won the popularity contest, pulling in more All-Star votes than anyone else on the National League ballot. He never got to play in the game. The same left knee that forced him out of a start against the Padres on July 3 also kept him out of the Midsummer Classic in Philadelphia, and weeks later, it's the biggest storyline shaping the 2026 NL MVP race on Polymarket.
Ohtani remains the favorite there, but the number has moved. The player closing that gap is Chicago Cubs outfielder Pete Crow-Armstrong, whose price has climbed after spending most of the spring barely registering.
Total volume on the contract has passed $1.2 million, and lately Crow-Armstrong's individual line has actually drawn more of that activity than Ohtani's own.
How A Kid From Iwate Built An Overqualified Resume
The favorite was born on July 5, 1994, in Mizusawa, now part of Oshu, in Japan's Iwate prefecture, and he's spent close to a decade making that hometown famous.
After signing his record $700 million deal with the Dodgers, Ohtani has stacked up two World Series rings, a 2023 World Baseball Classic title and MVP award with Japan, and four career MVP trophies, all four decided by unanimous vote. This year he's gone 8-2 with an ERA hovering around 1.79 on the mound while handling everyday duty at the plate.
What's changed is his health.
The knee discomfort that surfaced July 3 has kept him off the mound since, was serious enough to sideline him from the All-Star Game altogether, and has since been complicated by a separate issue in his throwing arm. Manager Dave Roberts has described the plan around Ohtani's return to pitching as staying flexible day to day, with the stated goal simply to "remain nimble" as his knee responds to workouts. He's kept producing at the plate through it, though: Tuesday's game against Seattle brought his 23rd home run of the season, a leadoff shot, his 10th of that specific kind this year.
History says it takes a genuine outlier season, like Aaron Judge's 62-homer run in 2022, to knock off an elite Ohtani. Crow-Armstrong might be building one. Asked about the MVP race at the All-Star break, he brushed it off with a laugh, joking he'd need to start pitching himself to have a real shot. Given his recent surge, he may not need to.
So When Does MLB Actually Hand Out the Award?
None of this changes when the actual award gets handed out.
BBWAA voters won't submit real ballots until the postseason starts, with the National League winner revealed on MLB Network: last year's announcement came November 13, the same date this Polymarket market is set to resolve.
A few weeks ago, this looked like a foregone conclusion. Ohtani's health has turned it into the real contest the numbers always suggested was possible, and every update on his knee, or every diving catch from Crow-Armstrong, is likely to keep moving the odds between now and October.
