Hi! I'm Sean Zerillo, Action Network's Senior MLB Analyst, and this post will house my team futures models, powered by our new PRO baseball betting tool, B.A.R.T.O.L.O.
Below, you can check out my team projections from a Monte Carlo simulation and evaluate those against the win total, divisional, make-or-miss playoff, and World Series markets in either league.
These projections will update daily, and you can use them to identify edges in these team futures markets.
Additionally, you can get all this and more by checking out Opening Pitch, which houses the official B.A.R.T.O.L.O. model — that's where you'll find my daily projections and live input data for every MLB game. You can also find my live player futures awards models for MVP, CY Young, and Rookie of the Year among the suite of tools.
Playoff Picture
August 5 Update:
- The Seattle Mariners currently project as my largest edge relative to current playoff odds. I have them making the postseason around 50% of the time, with listed odds closer to +150 and 40% implied, roughly a 10% edge. The Mariners also show the biggest edge in the World Series market, listed as high as +3000 (Caesars). I also like their AL Pennant odds at +1000.
- The Tampa Bay Rays (+500 to win the AL) and Detroit Tigers (+6500) also show some alpha relative to their listed odds. The Tigers own the second-best run differential in the AL and have the second-best record in baseball (33-20) since June 1.
- The Philadelphia Phillies and Pittsburgh Pirates show the most value relative to market in the NL playoff race.
- The Chicago White Sox and San Diego Padres are the biggest playoff fades in either league.
- The model says that both the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees are overvalued in the World Series market. However, the model is a Monte Carlo simulation built primarily to handicap regular-season win totals, playoff odds, and divisional probabilities, so it has some blind spots concerning roster consolidation and head-to-head matchups in the postseason.
Divisional Futures
August 5 Update:
- The Tampa Bay Rays are a value bet to win the AL East. I would lay their divisional price up to -135, as Aaron Judge isn't due back anytime from his IL stint.
- The Rays also pop up as a value bet to win the World Series (projected +1120, listed +1500) and, by extension, the American League (+500), but I wouldn't take them below +500 to win the pennant.
August 5 Update:
- The Cleveland Guardians and Detroit Tigers both show edges in the divisional market relative to listed odds, and only the Tigers show a positive edge in the odds to make the playoffs, but the divisional edge is larger (I'd take that down to +800).
- Detroit's offense has started to click of late, averaging nearly 10 runs per game over the past week. They have a Pythagorean record of 64-49 (second best in the AL) and also own the second-best record in the AL over the past two months.
- I'd bet against the Chicago White Sox making the playoffs. I currently make their fair odds around -130, and you can get as high as +165 on their odds to miss. I would bet that line at +145 or better.
August 5 Update:
- As mentioned above, the Seattle Mariners are my biggest edge across the board. Take them down to +110 to make the playoffs, +200 to win the AL West, and +800 to win the American League.
- Alternatively, or in addition, take the Houston Astros to miss the playoffs, down to +150 (listed +165), but I'd prefer to bet on the Mariners to overtake them at better odds.
August 5 Update:
- The model liked the Phillies' trade deadline more than the public consensus. You can take their NL East odds down to +650.
- Alternatively, consider the Braves' win total Under 95.5 (to -115) in a highly competitive NL East.
August 5 Update:
- If I didn't have a Milwaukee Brewers divisional ticket, I'd target the Chicago Cubs to win the NL Central at +400 or better.
- I liked the bullpen upgrades the Pittsburgh Pirates made at the trade deadline, and would consider betting their odds to make the playoffs at +500 or better.
August 5 Update:
- I took the San Diego Padres to miss the playoffs in the preseason, and I'd continue to press that button now, laying the juice up to -185.
